Updated September 17, 2026
Tottenham's clash with Aston Villa on Saturday sees both sides desperately searching for a first Premier League win of the season go head-to-head. Spurs are favored by prediction markets and bookmakers alike, but advanced metrics point to a continued struggle for Spurs. Tottenham have produced only 0.93 xG per game while conceding 2.23 xGA, giving them a league-worst -5.2 xGD through four matches. Villa have also struggled, but their 0.92 xG and 1.80 xGA per game produce a less damaging -3.3 xGD. With Spurs priced at 48¢ and Villa at 26¢, the visitors offer the more interesting value.
Why Our Model Sees Value
“Tottenham are being priced as though their home advantage outweighs a very poor underlying start. Spurs have created only 3.7 xG across four league games while conceding 8.9 xGA, and they remain without a Premier League goal. Villa’s numbers are hardly strong, but their defensive process has been better, and Spurs are conceding 1.22 set-piece xGA per game, an area Villa can specifically target. At 26¢, Villa do not need to be the better team, only substantially closer to Tottenham than the market suggests.”
The data gap is smaller than the market gap
Spurs are at -5.2 xGD, compared with Villa’s -3.3, while both attacks are creating less than 1.0 xG per game.
Tottenham’s defense has been considerably worse
De Zerbi’s side are conceding 2.23 xGA per game, compared with Villa’s 1.80. This includes Villa's opening day capitulation against Brighton when they played with 10 men for 50 minutes. Since then, Villa have only conceded 1.27 xGA per game.
Set pieces give Villa a specific route to outperform the price
Tottenham are allowing 1.22 set-piece xGA per game, the worst mark in the league, while Villa have already shown they can create from dead-ball situations. In a matchup where both sides are producing less than 1.0 xG per game in open play, that edge becomes more valuable because one corner or second-phase chance could swing a low-margin game.
Recommended Trade
Aston Villa to Win
Current Price
26¢
Market Implied Proability
26%
ATS Model Probability:
31%
Model Edge:
5%
Buy Up To:
29¢
Model Confidence:
68/100
Metric | Tottenham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
xG / 90 | 0.93 | 0.92 |
xGA / 90 | 2.23 | 1.80 |
xG Differential | -5.2 | -3.3 |
Open-Play xG | 1.9 | 2.2 |
Set-Piece xGA / 90 | 1.22 | 0.35 |
Clean Sheet Rate | 50% | 25% |
Shots Faced / 90 | 14.0 | 14.3 |
Both attacks have been poor, but Tottenham’s defensive process is the more alarming number. Spurs are allowing 2.23 xGA per game and rank bottom of the league for set-piece xGA at 1.22 per game, giving Villa a specific route to chances even if open-play creation remains limited.
Spurs are still without a Premier League goal, and their 0.93 xG per game suggests the problem is structural rather than simply variance. Their four league performances have produced just 3.7 xG, including 0.6 at Brentford and 0.8 against Everton.
De Zerbi wants Tottenham to build through pressure and create central overloads, but the final phase remains inefficient. Even when Spurs have controlled possession, they have struggled to turn that territory into clear chances.
Villa are creating virtually the same amount at 0.92 xG per game, but they have allowed 1.80 xGA, substantially better than Spurs’ 2.23. Their 2-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest was deserved on xG, but the previous trip to Hull produced a 1.7-0.6 xG advantage, evidence that Villa can still control weaker attacking opponents. Spurs currently fit that bil better than most.
This is presents the matchup's biggest mismatch. Tottenham are allowing 1.22 set-piece xGA per game, worst in the Premier League, while Villa’s only league goal has come from a dead-ball situation. John McGinn remains the primary corner and free-kick taker, and 78% of Villa’s set-play xG has come from corners.
Villa also scored twice from set-piece situations in Wednesday’s 3-1 Carabao Cup win at Coventry, with Ross Barkley among the scorers. Against a Spurs side struggling to defend first contacts and second phases, that gives Villa a route to scoring without needing their open-play attack to suddenly transform.
Tottenham receive a boost with Pedro Porro expected back, but Sandro Tonali, Dejan Kulusevski and Mykhailo Mudryk remain unavailable.
Villa’s defensive injuries are more concerning. Pau Torres is out with a hamstring problem, while Ian Maatsen is expected to miss six to eight weeks with ankle tendon damage. That limits how aggressively I want to price Villa, but those absences are already part of why the market has pushed them down to 26¢.
Neither side has created enough in open play to justify confidence, which makes the market gap difficult to defend. Tottenham have 0.93 xG per game and 2.23 xGA, while Villa sit at 0.92 and 1.80 respectively. The teams are much closer statistically than a 48¢ versus 26¢ moneyline suggests.
Spurs’ home advantage and Villa’s injuries make Tottenham the more likely winner, but likelihood and value are different questions. With xGStat giving Villa 33% and our adjusted projection still at 31%, the current 26¢ price provides enough separation to back the visitors.
Prediction: Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa
Best trade: Aston Villa to win at 26¢
