Brighton vs Crystal Palace Prediction: Back Both Teams to Score in the M23 Derby
Updated October 16, 2026
Updated October 16, 2026
Brighton have scored 18 goals from 11.71 expected goals. At the other end, they’ve conceded five from 9.05. Their results are much better than their performances, and that’s why I’m not paying 64¢ for a home win in Sunday’s M23 derby.
On paper, Crystal Palace don’t look like the side to spoil Brighton’s start. They lost in Lyon on Thursday, Axel Disasi is suspended, and no Premier League team has allowed more expected goals. But Pierre Sage’s side have scored in five of their last six games, and Brighton’s clean sheets haven’t been as convincing as they look.
That’s where I’m finding value. Our model sees an 5% edge on Both Teams to Score (Yes) at 59¢.
Crystal Palace
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Sportsbook | BRI | CRY |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 40.0¢ | +1.5 60.9¢ |
| Polymarket | -1.5 40.0¢ | +1.5 60.9¢ |
| FanDuel | -1.5 +132 | +1.5 -186 |
| Sportsbook | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 3.5 41.0¢ | 3.5 60.0¢ |
| Polymarket | 3.5 41.0¢ | 3.5 60.0¢ |
| FanDuel | 3.5 +140 | 2.5 +152 |
| BetRivers | 2.5 -177 | 2.5 +138 |
| BetMGM | 2.5 -185 | 2.5 +130 |
| Sportsbook | BRI | CRY | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 64.0¢ | 16.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| Polymarket | 64.0¢ | 17.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| FanDuel | -210 | +480 | +350 |
| Fanatics | -180 | +425 | +350 |
| BetRivers | -177 | +440 | +340 |
| DraftKings | -180 | +425 | +350 |
| BetMGM | -185 | +425 | +350 |
ATS Expert Verdict
“Brighton’s five goals conceded are keeping this price low. They’ve allowed 9.05 xG, which is mid-table defending, and they gave up over two expected goals across their two most recent clean sheets. Palace have scored in five of their last six games. At 59¢, Both Teams to Score is the best price on the board.”
Brighton’s defense has been lucky
Their three clean sheets since then weren’t as dominant as they look. Arsenal created 1.20 xG in the 3-0 at the Amex, and Sunderland made 0.85 xG in last week’s 2-0. That’s 2.05 expected goals against with nothing conceded. Over 90 minutes, the price should reflect the chances, not the scoreline.
Palace concede plenty but keep scoring
No team has given up more expected goals than Palace’s 12.03, so Brighton should score here. The other side of the bet looks just as solid. Pierre Sage’s team have scored in five of their last six games in all competitions, including two second-half goals in Lyon on Thursday and three past Nottingham Forest last weekend. Daichi Kamada, Yeremy Pino and Adam Wharton give them enough creativity to score away from home.
Model and goals market disagree
Fit a goals model to prediction market models' 64/22/17 split and you get about 1.95 expected goals for Brighton and 0.9 for Palace. That’s a low number for the away side when Brighton’s xGA runs at 1.51 per game. Our model, which regresses six games of xG toward league average, has Palace closer to 1.25. That moves Both Teams to Score to around 64%, compared with 59¢ on Polymarket. We have Brighton winning about 60% of the time, so there isn’t much value at 64¢ on the home win.
Recommended Position:
BTTS Yes
Current Price:
59¢
Model Probability:
64%
Market Probability:
59%
Model Edge:
5%
Entry Threshold:
61¢
Model Confidence:
61/100
Metric (2026-27 Premier League) | Brighton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
Matches Played (W-D-L) | 6 (4-1-1) | 6 (2-1-3) |
Goals Scored / Conceded | 18 / 5 | 9 / 12 |
Goals Scored / Conceded (Per 90) | 3.00 / 0.83 | 1.50 / 2.00 |
Combined Goals Per Match | 3.83 | 3.50 |
Expected Goals (xG) | 11.71 (1.95 per 90) | 7.94 (1.32 per 90) |
Expected Goals Allowed (xGA) | 9.05 (1.51 per 90) | 12.03 (2.01 per 90) |
xG Difference | +2.66 | -4.09 |
Goals Above xG | +6.29 | +1.06 |
League Position (xG Table) | 3rd (3rd) | 12th (18th) |
Home / Away Record | Home: 2-1-0 (8 scored, 1 conceded) | Away: 4 points from 3 games |
Brighton are a good team. They lead the league in xG, and their PPDA (opposition passes per defensive action) sits at 7.4, the lowest in the division, with a league-high 56 high turnovers after five games. But they’ve also scored 6.29 goals more than their chances suggest. Only Chelsea are outperforming their xG by more. Add the four goals they’ve avoided conceding and Brighton’s results are about ten goals better than their underlying numbers.
Palace’s numbers are the opposite. Their defense has the worst xGA in the league, and last weekend’s 3-1 win over Forest came despite Forest creating 2.98 xG to Palace’s 2.18. That’s still a team that gets into good areas, though. Palace’s 7.94 xG is in line with Leeds and not far behind Chelsea.
Hurzeler’s 4-2-3-1 is built around Pascal Gross, who has played every minute this season, covered more ground than any player in the league and created a league-high 18 chances. He’ll sit in the pivot alongside Chema Andres, with Yasin Ayari at No. 10 and Diego Gomez and Maxim De Cuyper wide. All three can drift inside behind Charalampos Kostoulas into the space in front of Palace’s back three.
Brighton’s press will look to win the ball high against a Palace back line that’s short of center-backs and played on Thursday.
The risk comes from Ferdi Kadioglu and Olivier Boscagli pushing high, which leaves Lewis Dunk and Luka Vuskovic exposed if the press is beaten. Dunk has been carrying a neck problem, and Pascal Struijk’s fitness decides who partners Vuskovic.
Sage has gone with a 3-4-2-1, but he’s used 27 different players in his first five league games, which equals the Premier League record. That lack of settled personnel is most obvious in defense. With Disasi suspended and Chadi Riad out for the season, Jefferson Lerma is expected to drop into the back three alongside Jaydee Canvot and Chris Richards unless Takehiro Tomiyasu is fit.
Palace’s route to goal runs through Wharton. He created four chances in Lyon and is good enough to hit Jorgen Strand Larsen over the top when Brighton’s full-backs push up.
Kamada and Pino scored in Lyon and will look to receive between the lines against a two-man Brighton midfield. Strand Larsen didn’t hit the target with any of his four shots on Thursday, but he’ll get the chances to rectify that here.
