The Pittsburgh Penguins head to Florida on Thursday to face the Tampa Bay Lightning in an Eastern Conference matchup in the NHL. Both teams are playing well lately and are winners of three of their last four games. They will try to notch another win at the expense of one another tonight. Before the puck is dropped in Tampa, you can find my Penguins vs Lightning prediction below.
Our Penguins vs Lightning Pick
Pick: Under 6.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date & Time: Thursday, December 4, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Penguins vs Lightning Odds
| Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|
| Tampa Bay –205 / Pittsburgh +170 | 6.5 Goals |
Key Storylines
Recent form
The Lightning enter on a solid run, having won four of their last five games at home and four of their last five games overall. Their overall record stands at 16-8-2, thanks to strong two-way play and a well-rounded roster. They did lose their last game to the New York Islanders and will try to bounce back here.
The Penguins are 13-7-5 overall and have taken three of their last four games. Their latest effort was a convincing 5–1 victory over the Philadelphia Flyers, powered by a two-goal night from veteran superstar Sidney Crosby. That win should give Pittsburgh some momentum heading into Tampa Bay, but they will have their hands full on the road against a quality Tampa team.
Goaltending
Goaltender performance could be a deciding factor here. Tampa Bay is expected to start Andrei Vasilevskiy, who gives the Lightning a steady backbone in net. He has one of the better goals against averages in the league at 2.31. On the Pittsburgh side, the recent return of Tristan Jarry has restored some stability. In his first game back, he stopped 29 shots to lead Pittsburgh to a 4–2 win over the Buffalo Sabres. If Jarry plays like that again tonight, Pittsburgh could keep this game within reach throughout.
Key skaters
Tampa Bay’s offensive leader remains Nikita Kucherov. He leads the Lightning with 32 points for the season. His ability to influence the attack, create space, and deliver high-end scoring chances has been huge for the Bolts. Forward Brandon Hagel is also important to Tampa. He leads the team with 15 goals. Sidney Crosby continues to deliver for the Penguins, and winger Bryan Rust will be vital if the Penguins hope to generate offense against Tampa’s defense.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TBL) | Over 0.5 points |
| Brandon Hagel (TBL) | Anytime Goal Scorer |
| Sidney Crosby (PIT) | Over 0.5 points |
| Bryan Rust (PIT) | Over 1.5 shots on goal |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first meeting of the season between Pittsburgh and Tampa.
- The Lightning are 12-14 on the puckline so far this season.
- Pittsburgh is 18-7 on the puckline going into this matchup.
Penguins vs Lightning Model Projection
Score Projection: Tampa Bay 4 – Pittsburgh 3
Win Probability: Tampa Bay 55%, Pittsburgh 45%
Final Thoughts
I’m taking the over in this contest. Jarry is still working his way back from injury, while these teams both have plenty of offensive firepower. A high-scoring game should be in the cards in Florida on Thursday night.
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