Denmark vs Germany Olympic Hockey Prediction & Preview - 2/12/2026
Updated February 11, 2026
Updated February 11, 2026
As the men’s hockey tournament at the 2026 Winter Olympics gets underway in Milan, Group C competitors Denmark and Germany will open their tournaments on Thursday. Both teams are looking to make an early impression in a pool that also includes the United States and Latvia, and this opening contest could set the tone for their paths through the group stage. Here, I break down this matchup and give you my Denmark vs Germany prediction on the ice.
Pick: Denmark +1.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Denmark enters the tournament with some momentum from international competition, particularly a strong showing at the 2025 IIHF World Championship where they pulled off a surprise result against Canada, demonstrating that they can be competitive with top-tier opponents. However, they have otherwise endured inconsistent results, reflected in a record with more defeats than wins in recent contests.
Germany’s warmup results have also been mixed, with some solid showings in exhibition play but occasional lapses when facing teams with deeper offensive weaponry. Betting data shows Germany as the clear favorite here, with win probabilities around 69% and 71%, underscoring expectations for a German victory in this preliminary-round opener.
Denmark’s reliance on Frederik Andersen in net will be huge to this game's outcome. Andersen’s experience at the NHL level can be a stabilizing influence, but his form this season has not been dominant. Germany’s goaltending situation is likely to feature Philipp Grubauer, who plays for the Seattle Kraken when not representing his country. Grubauer is a big reason for Seattle's improvement this season and he will try to make his presence felt in this tournament opener.
Denmark’s attack gets its firepower from Nikolaj Ehlers, whose pace and scoring ability give Denmark a chance to strike offensively. Oliver Bjorkstrand also offers scoring depth. Germany counters with a trio that has pedigree at the highest level: Leon Draisaitl, Tim Stützle, and JJ Peterka bring NHL experience and skill to the ice, giving Germany the potential for offense in bunches. Draisaitl’s ability to control play and generate chances will likely be crucial, while Stützle’s creativity can unlock scoring opportunities.
Score Projection: Denmark 3 – Germany 4 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Denmark 31%, Germany 69% ATS PRO
Germany should come away with the win in this game, with Draisaitl making a huge impact on the international stage. But I'm going to take the Danes as a puckline underdog here, as they have enough firepower of their own to keep this game reasonably close in the first game of the tournament for these European squads.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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