Jay Sanin on December 25, 2024
Rhamondre Stevenson projections and prop bets for Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots on Dec 28, 2024
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The Patriots rank as the 9th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 41.4% run rate.
Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 56.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in football when it comes to running backs (77th percentile).
This year, the fierce Los Angeles Chargers run defense has conceded a mere 4.70 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's ground game: the 23rd-best rate in the league.
This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -4-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The predictive model expects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game in this game (43.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.8% in games he has played).
With a lousy tally of 3.80 adjusted yards per carry (17th percentile) this year, Rhamondre Stevenson has been as one of the weakest pure runners in the league at the position.
The Chargers safeties profile as the 8th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
Rhamondre Stevenson is projected to have 51.2 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
