Jay Sanin on December 19, 2024
Jonnu Smith projections and prop bets for San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins on Dec 22, 2024
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 61.0% of their downs: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The Dolphins have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.0 plays per game.
In this week's contest, Jonnu Smith is expected by the model to rank in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs with 8.1 targets.
Jonnu Smith has posted many more air yards this year (33.0 per game) than he did last year (25.0 per game).
Jonnu Smith's 38.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 28.8.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 122.9 plays on offense called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the San Francisco 49ers, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.7 per game) this year.
Jonnu Smith's ability to grind out extra yardage has worsened this year, totaling just 5.74 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 7.14 figure last year.
This year, the strong San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered a mere 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the fewest in the league.
The 49ers pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus tight ends this year, yielding 6.72 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
Jonnu Smith is projected to have 57.9 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 61.0% of their downs: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The Dolphins have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.0 plays per game.
In this week's contest, Jonnu Smith is expected by the model to rank in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs with 8.1 targets.
Jonnu Smith's 38.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 28.8.
Jonnu Smith's receiving talent has gotten better this season, averaging 5.0 adjusted catches vs a mere 3.3 last season.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 122.9 plays on offense called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the San Francisco 49ers, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.7 per game) this year.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's group of LBs has been very good this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.
Jonnu Smith is projected to have 5.7 Receptions in this weeks game.
