Updated August 19, 2026
The 2026 NFL MVP market is packed with familiar quarterbacks, but the shortest price does not necessarily represent the best bet. Josh Allen remains the +650 favorite at BetMGM, ahead of Lamar Jackson (+850) and Joe Burrow (+900). Justin Herbert follows at +1000, with Drake Maye (+1100), Matthew Stafford (+1200) and Patrick Mahomes (+1200) forming the next group.
With this offseason awash with major changes around the league, we analyse where the value lies in the MVP market by looking at last season's data, offseason personnel changes and schedule difficulty for all of the major players.
Player | BetMGM Odds | 2025 Statistical Case | ATS View |
|---|---|---|---|
Josh Allen | +650 | 4,247 total yards, 39 total TDs | Favorite, but short |
Lamar Jackson | +850 | Elite efficiency when healthy | Contender |
Joe Burrow | +900 | 17 TDs in only 8 games | High ceiling |
Justin Herbert | +1000 | Strong volume profile | Needs MVP jump |
Drake Maye | +1100 | 72.0% comp., 113.5 rating | Best bet |
Matthew Stafford | +1200 | 4,707 yards, 46 TDs | Best proven value |
Patrick Mahomes | +1200 | 3,587 yards, 22 TDs | Rebound required |
Jalen Hurts | +2500 | 33 total TDs | Best longer shot |
Jared Goff | +3500 | Favorable team context | Deep value |
Bijan Robinson | +10000 | 1,478 rushing yards | Positional hurdle |
BetMGM odds updated August 18, 2026.
Drake Maye at +1100 is the most interesting price near the top of the market.
Maye came within five voting points of winning MVP last season. Matthew Stafford finished with 366 points to Maye's 361, with Stafford receiving 24 first-place votes to Maye's 23.
The numbers backed up that result. Maye completed 72.0% of his passes for 4,394 yards, throwing 31 touchdowns against eight interceptions while producing a 113.5 passer rating. He also added 450 rushing yards.
That gives him a strong combination of passing efficiency and rushing value, and there is less projection involved than the odds imply.
Allen is +650. Jackson is +850. Burrow is +900. Maye remains +1100 despite already producing a season that nearly won the award, and while he undoubtedly faces a tougher schedule than he did in last season's Super Bowl run, he still has the skills and the weapons at his disposal to go one better this time.
At an implied probability of roughly 8.3%, that looks like the strongest balance of price and proven MVP-level production.
ATS Pick: Drake Maye to Win MVP (+1100)
Matthew Stafford's MVP odds have started to drift, but this makes the reigning MVP more interesting rather than less.
Stafford led the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns last season before narrowly beating Maye for MVP. His statistical route to winning again is obvious: huge passing volume, elite touchdown production and another strong Rams season.
After all, the Rams are currently the Super Bowl favorites after they signed DPOY Myles Garrett and picked up two-time All Pro corner Trent McDuffie in the offseason to bolster an already impressive roster.
The concern is repeatability. Stafford is entering his 18th NFL season, and back-to-back MVP winners are rare.
But at +1200 Stafford is certainly appealing. The Georgia product is now available at the same number as Mahomes despite coming off a dramatically stronger statistical season and boasting a significantly stronger roster likely to put up a high win total. He is also longer than Herbert, who is still priced at +1000.
For a player who has already demonstrated exactly what his MVP ceiling looks like, +1200 is a compelling number.
Allen deserves to be favorite. He produced 4,247 total yards and 39 total touchdowns last season, including 579 rushing yards and 14 rushing scores.
That dual-threat production gives him more routes to an MVP season than most quarterbacks. He does not necessarily need to lead the league in passing yards if he continues generating touchdowns on the ground, the issue is simply the price.
While the Bills have added weapons to their roster such as wide receiver DJ Moore, they also have to contend with a tough schedule, and this could be to Allen's detriment in the MVP race. Allen has to contend with a Texans defense in Week 1 that sacked him 8 times and intercepted him twice in 2025, and that is before he faces the Chargers (Week 3), Patriots (Weeks 4 & 13), Rams (Week 5), Vikings (Week 9) and Broncos (Week 16).
If he is to secure the MVP title this season, 'Superman' is going to have to run the gauntlet.
At +650, Allen carries a raw implied probability of around 13.3%. Compare that with Maye at +1100 after almost winning last season, or Stafford at +1200 after actually winning it.Allen may be the most likely winner on paper, but that does not make him the best bet.
Burrow's 2025 season was disrupted by injury, limiting him to eight games, but he still threw 17 touchdowns.
The more useful reference point is 2024, when Burrow produced 4,918 passing yards and 43 touchdowns. That shows exactly why he is priced inside +1000.
If Cincinnati returns to the top of the AFC and Burrow challenges for the league lead in yards and touchdowns, he will be firmly in the MVP conversation.
The problem is that +900 already assumes a substantial rebound. Maye is longer despite finishing second in MVP voting last season, while Stafford is +1200 after winning it.
Burrow has one of the highest ceilings in the market, but the number is not particularly generous.
Mahomes and Stafford are now available at the same BetMGM price, which creates an interesting contrast.
Stafford is coming off 4,707 yards, 46 touchdowns and an MVP award. Mahomes finished 2025 with 3,587 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
Backing Mahomes at +1200 therefore requires bettors to project a significant statistical rebound.
Few quarterbacks are more capable of delivering one, but the question is whether the price offers enough compensation.
When Stafford is available at exactly the same number and Maye is only slightly shorter at +1100, Mahomes looks more like a reputation-based play than a pure value bet entering the season.
Further down the board, Jared Goff at +3500 is one of the more interesting longshots.
Detroit enters 2026 with a favorable schedule based on preseason win totals, giving Goff a realistic route to the team success generally required for MVP consideration.
Stafford's 2025 win also provided a useful reminder that a pocket passer does not need significant rushing production to win the award.
Goff would likely need Detroit to win 12 or 13 games while finishing near the top of the league in passing touchdowns, but +3500 gives bettors plenty of margin for that scenario.
He is not as strong a bet as Maye or Stafford, but he belongs on the longshot shortlist.
The massive odds attached to skill-position stars are tempting.
Bijan Robinson is +10000, with other elite running backs and receivers available at even larger numbers.
The historical obstacle is enormous.
Adrian Peterson in 2012 remains the most recent non-quarterback to win AP NFL MVP. Every winner since has been a quarterback.
That means a running back or receiver probably needs both a historically dominant individual season and a year in which no quarterback builds an overwhelming case.
The better approach is generally to target these players in the Offensive Player of the Year market instead.
The latest prices have not changed our preferred selection.
Drake Maye (+1100) offers the best combination of proven MVP-level production and price after coming within one first-place vote of winning last season.
Matthew Stafford (+1200) is now even more appealing after drifting from +1000. The reigning MVP is priced alongside Mahomes despite producing a vastly stronger 2025 season.
For bettors looking further down the board, Jalen Hurts (+2500) offers the best blend of upside and realistic MVP path, while Jared Goff (+3500) is an interesting deeper longshot.
