New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens ATS Prediction - 12/21/2025
Updated December 19, 2025
Updated December 19, 2025
The New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens will face off on Sunday Night Football in Week 16 of the NFL season. Both teams enter this primetime battle in division title contention, with the Patriots a game up in the AFC East and the Ravens a game back of first place in the AFC North. Here, I break down this matchup between playoff contenders in the AFC and give you my Patriots vs Ravens prediction from M&T Bank Stadium.
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Sunday’s primetime contest is crucial for both teams’ playoff positions. The Patriots arrive with an 11-3 record and could lock up a postseason berth with a win. New England has a one-game lead over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East standings despite the fact that the Patriots blew a 21-point lead against the Bills at home in Week 15. They have a high-powered offense led by Drake Maye, whose efficiency and production have been central to the team’s success this year.
On the other side, the Ravens have a .500 record and are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive. Baltimore is a game back of the Steelers in the race for the AFC North, and two games back in the hunt for the final AFC Wild Card spot. Baltimore snapped a two-game losing streak last week by beating the Cincinnati Bengals 24-0, but this will be a much tougher test for the Ravens on Sunday night.
Drake Maye has been among the NFL’s more efficient signal-callers this season, throwing 23 touchdown passes and just seven interceptions. His accuracy and decision-making have helped the Patriots sustain drives and convert in key moments, with Maye being arguably the most improved player in the NFL this past season.
Lamar Jackson remains the Ravens’ starter. Though his passing numbers lag behind Maye’s in terms of yardage and efficiency, Jackson has the mobility to change games. The duo of Jackson and Derrick Henry on the ground will be tough for New England, or any other defense, to stop.
Score Projection: Patriots 27 – Ravens 24
Win Probability: Patriots 50%, Ravens 50%
This Week 16 matchup should be close throughout, with both clubs capable of making a late push to win the game and help their chances of reaching their goals in the playoffs. But I'm going to take the field goal with the Patriots in this contest, as they have been more composed in close games (excluding last week) and should continue that in this contest on the road.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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