Raiders vs Patriots Prediction & Preview: Can New England Build On Big Win In Buffalo?
Updated October 10, 2026
Updated October 10, 2026
The Las Vegas Raiders travel to Gillette Stadium to face the New England Patriots on Sunday, October 11, 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Las Vegas enters Week 5 at 3-1 after suffering its first defeat, a 30-27 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. New England sits at 2-2 following an impressive 29-26 road victory over the Buffalo Bills. The Raiders have averaged 28.8 points per game, but they face a Patriots defense allowing just 19.3.
The Market Favors the Patriots
Polymarket currently prices New England at 64¢ and Las Vegas at 37¢, making the Patriots moderate favorites despite their inferior record. The 64¢ price represents an implied win probability of approximately 64%. Although Las Vegas has produced considerably more points this season, New England's ability to limit opponents and control possession provides a reasonable foundation for its favorite status.
Difference On the Ground
Our matchup-based projection gives the Patriots a 66% probability of winning, creating a 2% edge over the current Polymarket price. Las Vegas has allowed 134.5 rushing yards per game, while New England averages 117.8 on the ground. That difference could help the Patriots sustain drives and keep Kirk Cousins off the field. However, injuries in New England's defensive backfield limit the advantage. The preferred entry remains 64¢, with value becoming less attractive above 65¢.
Recommended Position:
Patriots to Win
Current Price:
64¢
Model Probability:
66%
Market Probability:
64%
Model Edge:
2%
Entry Threshold:
65¢
Model Confidence:
62/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“New England's defensive efficiency, home-field advantage, and favorable rushing matchup give the Patriots a slightly better chance of winning than their current market price suggests.”
Las Vegas occupies second place in the AFC West, trailing the undefeated Chiefs. New England also sits second in its division, making Sunday's contest important for its pursuit of Buffalo in the AFC East. The Raiders opened the season with 3 consecutive victories before losing to Kansas City. Their offense has scored at least 26 points in all 4 games, demonstrating remarkable consistency under head coach Klint Kubiak.
New England's season has been less predictable. However, its victory over Buffalo featured 405 total offensive yards and 26 first downs, suggesting the Patriots are capable of producing considerably more than their season average of 16.3 points. That is something that can't be overlooked when making NFL predictions for this contest.
Drake Maye delivered his best performance of the season against Buffalo, completing 22 of 37 passes for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns. Romeo Doubs caught 2 touchdown passes, while Efton Chism III secured the decisive score late in the fourth quarter.
Protecting Maye will be essential against Maxx Crosby, who has generated 25 quarterback pressures through 4 games. Las Vegas has recorded 12 sacks as a team, making pass protection a significant concern for New England.
Maye has also thrown 7 interceptions this season. Another careless performance could allow Las Vegas to capitalize on favorable field position and undermine New England's preferred offensive approach.
Cousins has accumulated 1,026 passing yards and 11 touchdowns through 4 games. Against Kansas City, he threw for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns, repeatedly finding his tight ends underneath and across the middle. Brock Bowers remains particularly dangerous, recording 16 receptions for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns across his last 2 appearances.
New England will be without cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III, Karon Prunty, and Channing Canada. Those absences create opportunities for Cousins, although the Patriots have allowed only 104 receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season.
New England's ground attack could prove decisive against a Raiders defense ranked 27th in rushing yards allowed. Rhamondre Stevenson is questionable with a knee injury, potentially increasing TreVeyon Henderson's responsibilities.
Las Vegas faces uncertainty surrounding Ashton Jeanty, who is questionable with ankle and foot problems. Jeanty has rushed for 264 yards on 78 attempts this season, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. The Patriots have surrendered 104 rushing yards per game, offering another potential advantage if their defensive front controls early downs.
Turnovers and rushing efficiency should determine the outcome. Las Vegas holds a plus-3 turnover differential compared with New England's minus-5, giving the visitors a clear opportunity to exploit mistakes.
However, the Patriots possess enough defensive discipline and rushing capability to offset that disadvantage if Maye protects the ball. Expect a competitive contest, with Cousins exploiting New England's depleted defensive backfield while Maye benefits from a favorable ground-game matchup.
