Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick & Prediction – Week 13, 2021
Updated October 29, 2026
Updated October 29, 2026
The Denver Broncos travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season. Both teams are firmly in the AFC playoff race, and this divisional matchup could have major implications for the AFC West standings.
Kansas City enters with a 7-4 record and four consecutive victories after a difficult start to the season. Denver sits at 6-5 following an impressive 28-13 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are favored by 9.5 points, but Denver's improving defense and physical running game give the Broncos a potential path to keeping this contest competitive.
Can the Broncos slow down Kansas City's offense, or will the Chiefs extend their winning streak against their division rivals?
Game details | Information |
|---|---|
Matchup | Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs |
Date | Sunday, December 5, 2021 |
Week | NFL Week 13 |
Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
Venue | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium |
Location | Kansas City, Missouri |
TV | NBC |
Broncos record | 6-5 |
Chiefs record | 7-4 |
Broncos head coach | Vic Fangio |
Chiefs head coach | Andy Reid |
Kansas City returns from its bye week with an opportunity to strengthen its position atop the AFC West.
Denver arrives with momentum of its own, having won three of its previous four games.
The following lines reflect a widely published pregame market for December 5, 2021.
Betting market | Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
Moneyline | +340 | -440 |
Point spread | +9.5 | -9.5 |
Over/Under | Over 47 | Under 47 |
Historical odds varied between sportsbooks and changed before kickoff. The figures above are a documented pregame snapshot rather than a confirmed original ATS.io line.
The Chiefs are substantial home favorites, with the market expecting Kansas City to win by more than one possession.
The 47-point total suggests that both offenses should have opportunities to score, although Denver's defensive improvement creates an interesting matchup.
Kansas City's -440 moneyline represents an implied win probability of approximately 81.5% before accounting for the sportsbook margin.
Denver's +340 moneyline corresponds to an implied probability of approximately 22.7%.
The combined probabilities exceed 100% because of the sportsbook's margin.
The point spread is particularly interesting.
Kansas City has won four straight games, but its offense has not consistently produced the explosive performances associated with Mahomes.
Denver has also demonstrated that it can compete with strong opponents through defense and an effective rushing attack.
That creates a meaningful distinction between predicting a Chiefs victory and expecting Kansas City to cover a large spread.
Kansas City enters Week 13 in considerably better form than it showed during the opening weeks of the season.
The Chiefs have improved defensively, reduced some of their earlier mistakes and regained control of the AFC West.
Denver presents a different challenge.
The Broncos have a physical running game, a capable secondary and an offense built around limiting mistakes rather than producing constant big plays.
Their approach could help shorten the game and keep Mahomes off the field.
However, Denver must avoid falling behind early.
If the Chiefs establish a substantial lead, the Broncos may be forced into a more pass-heavy approach that does not suit their offensive strengths.
Denver enters the game with a 6-5 record following a convincing victory over the Chargers.
The Broncos have been inconsistent offensively, but their defense has kept them competitive throughout the season.
Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has generally operated as a controlled, efficient passer.
His primary responsibility is to avoid costly turnovers, sustain drives and create scoring opportunities through accurate short and intermediate throws.
Against Kansas City, that approach could be particularly important.
The Chiefs' defense has improved significantly, making it more difficult for opponents to produce explosive plays.
Denver may need long, methodical drives to move the ball.
Bridgewater has provided stability at quarterback during his first season with the Broncos.
He is capable of finding receivers underneath and distributing the ball to multiple targets.
Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick give Denver several receiving options.
However, the Broncos' passing game is not built around the same volume of downfield attempts as Kansas City's offense.
Bridgewater's ability to handle pressure and avoid interceptions will be crucial.
A turnover in Denver's own territory could give Mahomes a short field and quickly change the game.
The Broncos' running game is one of their clearest strengths entering Week 13.
Rookie Javonte Williams has impressed with his physical running style and ability to gain yards after contact.
Melvin Gordon III has also been productive, but a hip injury creates uncertainty about his availability.
If Gordon cannot play, Williams is positioned to handle a larger workload.
That could provide Denver with an opportunity to establish a consistent rushing attack.
Running effectively would serve two purposes.
First, it would help the Broncos sustain drives and create manageable third-down situations.
Second, it would reduce the number of possessions available to Mahomes.
Against a Kansas City team capable of scoring quickly, controlling possession could be one of Denver's most effective strategies.
The Broncos have one of the stronger scoring defenses in the league entering this matchup.
Their secondary features talented players, including Justin Simmons and rookie cornerback Patrick Surtain II.
Denver's defense also performed well against the Chargers in Week 12, forcing mistakes and limiting Los Angeles' scoring opportunities.
However, Mahomes presents a different challenge.
His ability to extend plays and deliver accurate throws from difficult positions can punish even well-organized defenses.
Denver must generate pressure without leaving its secondary exposed.
Containing Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill will be particularly important.
If the Broncos can prevent explosive passing plays, they have a better chance of keeping the game within reach.
The Chiefs enter Week 13 with a 7-4 record and four consecutive wins.
Kansas City struggled with turnovers and defensive problems earlier in the season, but recent performances suggest the team is moving in the right direction.
The defense has improved substantially, while the offense remains capable of producing points quickly.
The Chiefs also benefit from a bye week before this divisional matchup.
That gives Andy Reid additional preparation time against a familiar opponent.
Mahomes remains one of the NFL's most dangerous quarterbacks.
His arm strength, mobility and ability to improvise create problems for opposing defenses.
However, Kansas City's offense has been less consistent in 2021 than during previous seasons.
Opponents have frequently used deeper coverage schemes to limit explosive passes, forcing Mahomes to work through shorter routes.
That has contributed to some uneven performances.
Against Denver, patience could be particularly important.
The Broncos have the defensive personnel to challenge Kansas City's receivers and prevent easy downfield completions.
Mahomes may need to rely on sustained drives rather than immediate big plays.
Hill and Kelce remain the central weapons in Kansas City's passing attack.
Hill's speed creates a constant deep threat, even when defenses devote additional attention to him.
Kelce provides a reliable option across the middle of the field and can create mismatches against linebackers and defensive backs.
Denver's defensive approach will likely focus on limiting both players.
However, concentrating too heavily on Hill and Kelce can create opportunities for other Kansas City receivers.
The Chiefs' offensive success may depend on their ability to take advantage of those opportunities.
One of the biggest developments in the Chiefs' season has been their defensive improvement.
Kansas City allowed substantial scoring totals early in the year, but the unit has performed much better during its winning streak.
The return of Chris Jones to a more effective role along the defensive line has strengthened the pass rush.
Frank Clark and Melvin Ingram also provide additional pressure.
The secondary has benefited from more consistent play, helping Kansas City reduce the number of explosive plays allowed.
Against Denver, the Chiefs will focus on stopping the run and forcing Bridgewater into difficult passing situations.
If Kansas City can make the Broncos one-dimensional, the matchup becomes significantly more favorable for the home team.
Denver has enough talent in its secondary to challenge Kansas City's passing game.
Simmons provides an experienced presence at safety, while Surtain has shown impressive ability as a rookie.
The Broncos must prevent Hill from generating explosive plays and limit Kelce's effectiveness in the middle of the field.
Mahomes will test their discipline throughout the game.
Denver's rushing attack could be the most important factor in keeping this game competitive.
Williams has the strength to break tackles and generate additional yards after contact.
Kansas City's defense has improved, but the Broncos will still look for opportunities to establish the run.
If Denver consistently gains four or five yards on early downs, Bridgewater will face more manageable passing situations.
That would also help keep the Chiefs' offense on the sideline.
The Broncos face concerns along their offensive line entering Week 13.
Kansas City's improving pass rush could exploit those issues.
Jones is particularly dangerous when attacking the interior of the offensive line.
If the Chiefs generate consistent pressure, Bridgewater may struggle to sustain drives.
Denver must protect its quarterback and avoid long-yardage situations.
The coaching matchup adds another interesting element.
Reid has a long history of preparing effective offensive game plans, particularly after bye weeks.
Fangio is an experienced defensive coach who understands the importance of disguising coverage and limiting explosive plays.
Both coaches know each other's teams well.
The outcome may depend on which side makes the better adjustments after the opening possessions.
Kansas City enters the matchup having won 11 consecutive games against Denver.
The Chiefs have dominated the rivalry in recent seasons, repeatedly finding ways to beat their AFC West opponents.
The Broncos' most recent victory over Kansas City came in September 2015.
Date | Matchup | Result |
|---|---|---|
December 6, 2020 | Broncos at Chiefs | Chiefs 22-16 |
October 25, 2020 | Chiefs at Broncos | Chiefs 43-16 |
December 15, 2019 | Broncos at Chiefs | Chiefs 23-3 |
October 17, 2019 | Chiefs at Broncos | Chiefs 30-6 |
October 28, 2018 | Broncos at Chiefs | Chiefs 30-23 |
Kansas City's recent dominance is difficult to ignore.
However, the previous meeting at Arrowhead ended in a relatively close 22-16 Chiefs victory.
That result demonstrates that Denver can remain competitive when its defense limits Kansas City's scoring opportunities.
Kansas City is the clear favorite for several reasons.
The Chiefs have home-field advantage, a superior quarterback and a strong recent record against Denver.
They also enter with four consecutive victories.
However, the -440 moneyline offers a relatively small return compared with the amount risked.
A Kansas City victory may be the most likely outcome, but that does not automatically make the moneyline attractive at the listed price.
Denver's defense and running game provide reasons to consider the underdog.
The Broncos have the ability to slow the pace and limit the number of possessions.
A lower-scoring contest could make it difficult for Kansas City to build a double-digit winning margin.
However, Denver must protect the football.
A defensive touchdown or a turnover that creates a short field could quickly undermine its approach.
Kansas City's defensive improvement strengthens the argument for backing the favorite.
If the Chiefs stop Denver's running game and force Bridgewater into obvious passing situations, they could establish control.
The challenge is that Kansas City's offense has not consistently produced dominant scoring performances.
Covering a 9.5-point spread requires more than simply winning.
The Chiefs need to build a substantial advantage and avoid allowing Denver to score late.
The total presents an interesting contrast between Kansas City's offensive potential and Denver's defensive strengths.
The Chiefs have the personnel to score quickly, but their offense has been inconsistent.
Denver prefers a more controlled approach and could emphasize the running game.
That combination creates a reasonable argument for a lower-scoring contest.
However, turnovers and short fields remain important risks.
A defensive touchdown or several explosive plays could push the combined score higher even if both teams play at a relatively slow pace.
Kansas City deserves to be favored.
Mahomes provides a significant advantage at quarterback, and the Chiefs enter with momentum after four consecutive victories.
Their improving defense also creates a difficult matchup for Denver's offense.
However, the Broncos have a realistic path to staying competitive.
A productive running game, limited turnovers and disciplined defensive coverage could prevent Kansas City from establishing a large lead.
Denver's ability to control possession is particularly important.
If the Broncos consistently sustain drives, they can reduce the opportunities available to Mahomes and keep the game close into the second half.
The Chiefs remain the more likely winner, but the size of the spread makes this a more complicated betting decision.
Category | Assessment |
|---|---|
Favored team | Kansas City Chiefs |
Pregame spread | Chiefs -9.5 |
Pregame total | 47 points |
Chiefs' biggest advantage | Patrick Mahomes and home field |
Broncos' biggest advantage | Defense and physical running game |
Key matchup | Denver's rushing attack vs Kansas City's defensive front |
Main concern for Denver | Turnovers and pass protection |
Main concern for Kansas City | Offensive inconsistency |
→ Our Take: Kansas City has the stronger overall matchup and should be favored to win at home. Denver's defense and running game could keep the contest competitive, but the Broncos need to avoid turnovers and prevent Mahomes from creating short scoring drives. The Chiefs are the more convincing straight-up choice, while the 9.5-point spread requires a separate assessment.
Sunday, December 5, 2021
Final Score: Kansas City Chiefs 22, Denver Broncos 9
Kansas City extended its winning streak to five games with a 22-9 victory over Denver at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs' defense delivered another strong performance, forcing three turnovers and limiting the Broncos to nine points.
Patrick Mahomes scored on a first-quarter rushing touchdown, while Daniel Sorensen returned an interception 75 yards for a touchdown in the fourth quarter.
Denver moved the ball effectively at times but struggled to finish drives.
The Broncos gained more total yards than Kansas City but repeatedly failed to convert opportunities into points.
Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Denver Broncos | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 10 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
Kansas City built a 10-0 lead in the opening quarter.
Denver cut the deficit to seven points before halftime, but the Broncos failed to score in the third quarter.
The Chiefs extended their advantage to 16-3 early in the fourth before Sorensen's interception return effectively decided the game.
Denver scored its only touchdown with just over five minutes remaining.
Statistic | Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
Total yards | 404 | 267 |
Passing yards | 250 | 178 |
Rushing yards | 154 | 89 |
First downs | 22 | 15 |
Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
Third-down conversions | 4/14 | 5/12 |
Time of possession | 33:30 | 26:30 |
The statistics reveal an unusual result.
Denver outgained Kansas City by 137 yards and held the ball for seven minutes longer.
However, the Broncos committed three turnovers and failed to capitalize on several promising drives.
Kansas City's defense made the decisive plays despite the offense producing only 267 yards.
Mahomes completed 15 of 29 passes for 184 yards, with no passing touchdowns and one interception.
He also scored on a 10-yard rushing touchdown in the first quarter.
It was not a dominant passing performance, but the Chiefs did enough offensively to support their defense.
Bridgewater completed 22 of 40 passes for 257 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.
He connected with Javonte Williams for a 13-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter.
However, his two interceptions were costly.
Sorensen returned one of them 75 yards for a touchdown, turning a competitive game into a comfortable Kansas City lead.
Williams was one of Denver's strongest performers.
With Melvin Gordon unavailable, the rookie handled a substantial workload and rushed for 102 yards.
He also contributed as a receiver, catching the Broncos' only touchdown.
His performance demonstrated that Denver's rushing attack could be effective against Kansas City.
However, the team's inability to finish drives prevented that production from translating into more points.
Kansas City's 22-9 victory produced the following outcomes against the referenced pregame lines.
Betting market | Pregame line | Result |
|---|---|---|
Chiefs moneyline | -440 | Won |
Broncos moneyline | +340 | Lost |
Chiefs -9.5 | -9.5 | Won |
Broncos +9.5 | +9.5 | Lost |
Over 47 | 47 | Lost |
Under 47 | 47 | Won |
The Chiefs won by 13 points, covering the 9.5-point spread.
The teams combined for 31 points, finishing 16 points below the posted total.
The original ATS.io article could not be recovered, so there is no verified original betting selection to grade.
Kansas City's defense was the deciding factor.
The Chiefs forced three turnovers, limited Denver to nine points and scored a defensive touchdown.
Sorensen's 75-yard interception return gave Kansas City a 22-3 lead in the fourth quarter.
That play created the separation needed to cover the spread.
Denver's late touchdown reduced the margin to 13 points, but the Broncos could not get close enough to threaten the result.
The game featured limited offensive scoring.
Kansas City managed only one offensive touchdown, while Denver scored just once.
Both teams struggled to convert drives into touchdowns.
The Chiefs relied on field goals and defensive scoring, while Denver repeatedly failed to capitalize on its yardage advantage.
The final total of 31 points finished comfortably Under 47.
The Chiefs' defensive improvement continued against Denver.
Kansas City limited the Broncos to nine points and forced several important mistakes.
That was particularly encouraging because the Chiefs' offense did not produce its usual level of scoring.
The victory showed Kansas City could win through defense rather than relying entirely on Mahomes.
The Broncos gained 404 yards compared with Kansas City's 267.
However, total yardage alone does not determine the outcome.
Denver failed to finish drives, struggled on fourth down and committed costly turnovers.
Kansas City made better use of its scoring opportunities.
Williams delivered an impressive performance as Denver's primary running back.
His 102 rushing yards demonstrated his ability to handle a substantial workload against a division rival.
He also caught Denver's only touchdown.
His performance was one of the Broncos' few clear positives.
Kansas City recorded its 12th consecutive victory over Denver.
The Chiefs continued to control the AFC West rivalry and strengthened their position in the division standings.
Denver remained competitive in stretches but could not overcome its mistakes.
The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Denver Broncos 22-9 on December 5, 2021.
A documented pregame market listed Kansas City as a 9.5-point favorite, with a total of 47 points. The Chiefs were -440 on the moneyline, while Denver was +340.
Yes. Kansas City won by 13 points, covering the -9.5 spread.
The game finished Under 47 points, with 31 combined points.
Patrick Mahomes started for Kansas City.
Teddy Bridgewater started for Denver.
Mahomes threw for 184 yards.
Bridgewater threw for 257 yards.
Daniel Sorensen returned an interception 75 yards for a touchdown in the fourth quarter.
Williams rushed for 102 yards.
Denver gained 404 total yards.
Kansas City gained 267 total yards.
The Broncos committed three turnovers.
Kansas City led Denver 10-3 at halftime.
The game took place at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.
The original ATS.io article is unavailable, so its exact betting recommendation cannot be verified.
Kansas City defeated Denver 22-9 in a game defined by defensive execution and turnovers.
The Chiefs entered as substantial favorites, but their offense managed only 267 total yards.
Instead, Kansas City's defense made the difference.
Three takeaways and Sorensen's 75-yard interception return helped the Chiefs secure a comfortable victory despite Denver's advantage in total yardage.
The result rewarded bettors who backed Kansas City on the moneyline, Chiefs -9.5 or Under 47 points.
→ Our Take: Kansas City was the stronger team entering Week 13 and justified its favorite status with a 13-point victory. The Chiefs' defense proved decisive, forcing three turnovers and scoring a touchdown. Denver moved the ball effectively but failed to convert its opportunities, allowing Kansas City to extend its winning streak and cover the spread.
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Updated October 29, 2026
