Bills vs Rams Player Prop Predictions: Best MNF Props for Week 5
Updated October 9, 2026
*Note: Polymarket prices are subject to change.
Updated October 9, 2026
*Note: Polymarket prices are subject to change.
The Buffalo Bills travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams on Monday Night Football in Week 5, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium.
Buffalo (3-1) is looking to bounce back from its first loss of the season against New England, while Los Angeles (2-2) is coming off a road win over Philadelphia. With Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford leading two explosive offenses, this should be one of the more entertaining matchups of the week.
For this game, I've identified three Bills vs Rams player props that I think offer value on Polymarket right now. Below, I'll break down my picks for Kyren Williams, Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen, along with the numbers behind each.
Buffalo Matches Up Well Against the Rams' Run Scheme
Los Angeles leads the NFL with 12.8 man-concept rushing attempts per game, but Buffalo is one of just three defenses that hasn't allowed a run of 10+ yards against those concepts this season. That's an encouraging matchup for the Under, especially since the Rams have generated most of their explosive runs from this scheme.
Blake Corum Is Taking Some of the Carries
Kyren Williams is averaging just 13.5 carries per game, while Blake Corum has already handled 33 rushing attempts through four games. Corum has accounted for nearly 38% of the carries between the two backs, limiting Williams' workload despite his role as the starter.
Williams Is Getting More Involved in the Passing Game
Williams has caught 16 passes for 137 yards over his last two games, including 10 receptions against Philadelphia last week. He's becoming a bigger part of the Rams' passing attack, so his overall involvement doesn't necessarily have to translate into more rushing attempts.
Recommended Prediction:
Williams U69.5 Rush Yds
Current Market Price:
53¢
Model Under Probability:
58.2%
Market-Implied Probability:
53.0%
Model Edge:
+5.2%
Buy Up To:
57¢
Model Trade Confidence:
75/100
Stafford Has Cleared This Number in Three Straight Games
Matthew Stafford is averaging 297.3 passing yards per game this season and has thrown for 327, 390 and 317 yards over his last three starts. He's also attempted at least 50 passes in each of his last two games, giving him plenty of opportunities to clear 275 yards again.
Buffalo's Pass Defense Has Struggled
The Bills are allowing 274 passing yards per game, ranking 27th in the NFL, while opposing quarterbacks have posted a 103.4 passer rating against them. Buffalo has also allowed 6.89 yards per attempt when generating pressure, compared to the league average of 5.97, suggesting that even getting after Stafford may not be enough to slow him down.
The Rams Are Throwing Often and Pushing the Ball Downfield
Los Angeles ranks second in the NFL with 41.2 pass attempts per game and sixth with 9.38 air yards per attempt. Stafford also has Puka Nacua back, who caught nine passes for 125 yards against Philadelphia last week. Between the Rams' passing volume and willingness to attack downfield, Stafford should have plenty of chances to rack up yardage.
Recommended Prediction:
Stafford 275+ Pass Yds
Current Market Price:
54¢
Model Over Probability:
58.8%
Market-Implied Probability:
54.0%
Model Edge:
+4.8%
Buy Up To:
58¢
Model Trade Confidence:
72/100
Allen Has Been a Consistent Rushing Threat
Josh Allen has already rushed for seven touchdowns through four games, finding the end zone in every contest so far. He's also averaging 8.3 carries per game and ranks second among qualified quarterbacks with an 88.4 PFF rushing grade. His rushing ability continues to be a major part of Buffalo's offense.
Buffalo Relies on Allen Near the Goal Line
Allen has handled nine red-zone carries this season, including six inside the 10-yard line, and has scored six touchdowns on those nine attempts. Even with James Cook in the backfield, Buffalo continues to give Allen plenty of opportunities to finish drives himself.
The Rams Have Been Vulnerable in the Red Zone
Los Angeles has allowed touchdowns on 58.3% of opponents' red-zone trips this season, while Buffalo ranks ninth offensively with a 68.75% red-zone touchdown rate. The Rams also allowed Broncos quarterback Bo Nix to score on the ground in Week 3, giving Allen another favorable matchup near the goal line.
Recommended Prediction:
Allen Anytime TD
Current Market Price:
52¢
Model TD Probability:
57.6%
Market-Implied Probability:
52.0%
Model Edge:
+5.6%
Buy Up To:
56¢
Model Trade Confidence:
78/100
The Rams are currently trading at 62¢ on Polymarket, giving them roughly a 62% implied chance of securing their third win of the season and moving above .500.
Los Angeles is also favored by 3.5 points, with the Rams trading at 48¢ to cover the number.
Meanwhile, the total is set at 54.5 points, one of the highest on this week's NFL slate, with the Over trading at 50¢. That suggests the market is expecting plenty of offense from both teams on Monday night.
So, what does the expected game script mean for our three player prop predictions?
Our ATS Quantitative Model's Bills vs Rams prediction projects a 31-27 Rams win, with 58 combined points. That supports the idea of a competitive, high-scoring game and gives us another reason to like the overall setup for these props.
For more player props, parlays, game previews and analysis throughout Week 5 and beyond, check out our latest NFL predictions.
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