76ers vs Pacers Player Props: Expert Predictions for Wednesday, Oct. 28
Updated October 28, 2026
Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket.us and may change based on trading activity leading up to tipoff.
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Updated October 28, 2026
Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket.us and may change based on trading activity leading up to tipoff.
The Philadelphia 76ers travel to Indianapolis to take on the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday, October 28. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, with the game airing on ESPN.
Both teams are coming off losses and looking to bounce back. Philadelphia (3-1) had its three-game winning streak snapped in a 106-93 loss to Detroit on Sunday, while Indiana (2-2) fell 110-102 to Milwaukee on Monday.
For this matchup, I think the best opportunities are in the NBA player prop market. I've found three predictions involving Pascal Siakam, LeBron James, and VJ Edgecombe that I like at their current Polymarket prices. Below, I'll explain why, using recent trends, matchup data, and other supporting stats.
Indiana's Backcourt Injuries
With Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard both questionable for tonight's matchup with the 76ers, Siakam could take on a larger scoring role. T.J. McConnell and Ben Sheppard are also sidelined, leaving Indiana short on backcourt depth. If either Haliburton or Nembhard sits, the Pacers may need to run more of their offense through Siakam.
Consistent Scoring Production
Siakam is averaging 23.5 points in 31.8 minutes per game, scoring at least 20 in all four appearances. He also averaged 24.0 points last season and has already scored 30 against New Orleans this year, showing he can clear tonight's line.
Potential for Increased Shot Volume
Siakam is averaging 17 field-goal attempts and 6.3 free-throw attempts per game. He scored 30 points on 23 shots in the season opener, showing what additional volume can produce. If Indiana's injuries lead to a few extra shot attempts, he could have a good chance of reaching 25 points.
Recommended Prediction:
Siakam 25+ Pts (Yes)
Current Market Price:
40¢
Model Over Probability:
45.8%
Market-Implied Probability:
40.0%
Model Edge:
+5.8%
Buy Up To:
44¢
Model Confidence:
72/100
A History of Hitting This Line
LeBron made at least two threes in 29 of 70 games last season (41.4%), above the 35% break-even probability at his current Polymarket price. He also reached 2+ threes in more than half his games in each of the previous two seasons, so he's cleared this line fairly regularly in the past.
Potential for Positive Shooting Regression
LeBron is just 1-for-10 (10%) from beyond the arc through three games, well below his usual shooting percentage. He's still taking 3.3 threes per game, though, and if he knocks one down early on Wednesday night, he may be more willing to keep shooting.
Plenty of Minutes and Open Looks
LeBron has played 33-34 minutes in all three games this season, giving him plenty of time to find his shot. With Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, and Jaylen Brown drawing defensive attention, he could also get some cleaner looks from beyond the arc. At 35¢ on Polymarket, I think there's some value in backing him to make two threes.
Recommended Prediction:
LeBron 2+ Threes (Yes)
Current Market Price:
35¢
Model Over Probability:
39.9%
Market-Implied Probability:
35.0%
Model Edge:
+4.9%
Buy Up To:
38¢
Model Confidence:
68/100
Strong Track Record Against Indiana
Edgecombe averaged 25.8 PRA last season and reached 20+ in 15 of his final 20 games (75%). He also cleared tonight's line in all four meetings with Indiana, recording 20, 30, 31, and 34 PRA. Philadelphia's roster has changed since then, but those numbers are encouraging.
Still Producing Despite Lower Usage
With Jaylen Brown and LeBron James joining Philadelphia, Edgecombe's usage rate has dropped from roughly 20% last season to 16.2% this year. Even so, he's averaging 23.3 PRA through three games and has reached 20+ twice.
Rebounding and a Favorable Matchup
Edgecombe is averaging 8.0 rebounds in 32.7 minutes per game, including a 13-rebound performance. Indiana allowed 46.7 rebounds per game last season, the fourth-most in the NBA, and will be without starting center Ivica Zubac. That could give Edgecombe more chances to contribute on the boards.
Recommended Prediction:
Edgecombe 20+ PRA (Yes)
Current Market Price:
58¢
Model Over Probability:
62.1%
Market-Implied Probability:
58.0%
Model Edge:
+4.1%
Buy Up To:
61¢
Model Confidence:
66/100
Philadelphia enters Wednesday night's matchup priced as a decent-sized favorite, trading at 65¢ on Polymarket compared to 36¢ for Indiana. That gives the 76ers an implied win probability of roughly 65%, putting LeBron James and company in a good position to improve to 4-1 on the season.
Philadelphia is also favored by 5.5 points, with a 51¢ price to cover the number. The game total sits at 235.5 points, with the under also trading at 51¢. Our 76ers vs Pacers prediction favors the under as well, but that doesn't mean we're expecting a low-scoring game. There should still be plenty of scoring opportunities for both teams.
One thing I always keep an eye on when targeting player prop overs is blowout potential. If one team pulls away early, players could see fewer minutes than expected, making it harder to hit their lines.
However, the largest margin of victory in a 76ers game this season has been just 11 points. And with both teams coming off losses, I'm expecting a competitive matchup where Pascal Siakam, LeBron James, and VJ Edgecombe all get enough playing time to have a good shot at clearing their respective lines.
