Oklahoma City visits Denver in a marquee Western Conference matchup set for Sunday night. We should see the top two NBA MVP contenders face off in this game, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads OKC against a Nuggets team whose top star in Nikola Jokic has recently returned from injury. Before tip-off in this huge Western Conference matchup, continue reading to get my Thunder vs Nuggets prediction in the NBA.
Our Thunder vs Nuggets Pick
Pick: Under 222.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets
- Date & Time: Sunday, February 1, 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
- Broadcast: NBC/Peacock
Key Storylines
- Nikola Jokic returned from a knee injury on January 30 and is expected to play in this game as well. He is averaging 29.7 PPG, 12.2 RPG, and 10.8 APG with elite efficiency. The Nuggets are a much better team while he is active and it will be interesting to see if he can give Denver another big night here against the defending champions.
- Aaron Gordon is out multiple weeks with a right hamstring setback. Denver has also dealt with absences for Cam Johnson and Christian Braun, though Jamal Murray and Jonas Valanciunas recently rejoined the lineup.
- Oklahoma City lists Jalen Williams out with a hamstring issue, while Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell have been managing soft-tissue and abdomen concerns. SGA continues to pace the offense at 32.0 PPG with strong shooting splits and the ability to get to the free-throw line at will.
- Form check: over the last 10 games, the Thunder are 6-4 straight up, while the Nuggets are 7-3. OKC remains elite in FT% and true shooting, and Denver is still top-5 in offensive efficiency at a slower pace.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past meetings: This is the first regular-season meeting of 2025-26. Last regular season these sides split their gamese 2-2, and Oklahoma City won a 7-game playoff series between them in May.
- OKC is 23-26 against the spread so far this season.
- Denver is 29-20 against the spread going into this matchup.
- The over is 30-19 in Nuggets games this season, the highest percentage of overs in the NBA.
- The under is 25-24 in Thunder games so far this year.
Thunder vs Nuggets Model Projection
Score Projection: Oklahoma City 112 – Denver 110
Win Probability: Oklahoma City 57%, Denver 43%
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this game is the under at 222.5 points. Jokic being back for the Nuggets should help them slow this game down, while SGA and the Thunder love to operate out of the half-court as well. I think this will be an intense and low-scoring affair that lands under the total when all is said and done.
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