UFC Freedom 250 Betting Insights: BetMGM Splits Show Gaethje Love

BetMGM’s betting insights for UFC Freedom 250 show a card where the public is leaning hard into plus-money underdogs, knockout props, and short-fight outcomes. That is not especially surprising given the way this event is priced. Several favorites are sitting in heavy chalk range, which often pushes casual bettors away from straight moneyline bets and toward underdogs, method props, or early-finish angles.

The main event between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje is the clear betting centerpiece. Topuria is the sizeable favorite at BetMGM, but Gaethje has attracted overwhelming public interest as the most popular underdog on the card. The co-main event between Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane is much tighter on the odds board, but the betting splits show Pereira drawing the stronger public support.

“UFC Freedom 250 has some massive favorites on paper, so the book is going to need at least one large upset to avoid the chalky parlays streaming in. With only one fight favored to go the distance on the night, the fans are betting on these fights not to reach the judges.”

Alex Rella, Trading Manager, BetMGM

Justin Gaethje Is the Public’s Favorite Underdog

Gaethje opened at +360 and has moved to +425 at BetMGM, but the longer price has not scared bettors away. According to BetMGM’s data, Gaethje has taken 92% of the bets and 88% of the handle in the main event market. That is a massive split for an underdog facing a fighter priced as heavily as Topuria.

This is exactly the kind of betting pattern sportsbooks tend to see around popular action fighters. Gaethje is dangerous, familiar to bettors, and easy to back emotionally because his win condition is obvious: he needs the fight to become chaotic. Topuria may be the technically cleaner side, but Gaethje’s price and finishing upside are clearly resonating with the public.

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Topuria Props Point Toward an Early Finish

Even though Gaethje is the public’s preferred moneyline play, Topuria still dominates BetMGM’s most-bet prop list. “Ilia Topuria in Round 1” at +150 is the most popular prop by tickets, followed by “Ilia Topuria in Round 2” at +325. Bettors are not simply backing Topuria to win; they are targeting a specific early-finish script.

That lines up with the broader comment from BetMGM trading manager Alex Rella, who noted that fans are betting on these fights not to reach the judges. When the main event favorite is priced at -600, bettors looking for a better payout naturally move into round props, method props, or faster-finish markets.

Alex Pereira Is Drawing the Stronger Support in the Co-Main

The co-main event between Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane is priced as a pick’em at BetMGM, with both fighters currently listed at -115. The betting splits are not nearly as balanced. Pereira has taken 76% of the bets and 66% of the handle, while Gane has drawn 24% of the bets and 34% of the handle.

That is a notable split because the odds have not separated despite the public leaning clearly toward Pereira. In simple terms, BetMGM has not needed to move Pereira away from Gane, at least based on the current numbers shown. That could suggest there is either sharper resistance on Gane or simply not enough liability yet to force a meaningful adjustment.

Derrick Lewis Is Another Public Underdog

Gaethje is not the only underdog attracting attention. Derrick Lewis is listed at +310 against Josh Hokit, and BetMGM’s splits show Lewis with 86% of the bets and 63% of the handle. Hokit is still the favorite at -400, but he has only 14% of the tickets in that matchup.

This is another classic UFC betting pattern. Lewis has name value, knockout equity, and a price that appeals to bettors who do not want to lay heavy juice. The difference between tickets and handle is worth noting, though. Lewis has a huge share of the bet count, but a lower share of the money, which may indicate more small-stake public interest than larger-position confidence.

What the BetMGM Data Says About UFC Freedom 250

The biggest takeaway from BetMGM’s UFC Freedom 250 insights is that bettors are not afraid of long prices on this card. Gaethje, Chandler, and Lewis are all popular underdog plays by tickets, while Topuria props are being used as a way to attack the favorite without laying -600 on the moneyline.

The handle data adds a little more nuance. Gaethje’s 88% handle share is strong enough to show that this is not just a small-ticket popularity play. Pereira’s 66% handle share also suggests real support in the co-main event, even though the odds remain level with Gane. Lewis, meanwhile, has a much bigger ticket share than handle share, which makes that market look more like a public underdog spot.

From a betting perspective, this is the kind of card where the sportsbook will likely be rooting against chaos. A Gaethje upset would be a major result for the public. A Topuria early finish would also cash several popular prop angles. And if the card produces quick knockouts rather than decisions, many of the public’s preferred betting narratives would be in play.

BetMGM betting insights are based on straight bets only. Odds and betting splits can change before fight night.

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Henrik Norman

Sports betting analyst with 9+ years of experience in the iGaming industry. Specializes in hockey (NHL, SHL) and soccer (EPL, Allsvenskan, Champions League). Has analyzed thousands of games and betting markets during his career.

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