Updated September 4, 2026
Oumar Sy gets another chance to perform in front of a French crowd when he meets Modestas Bukauskas in a light heavyweight bout at UFC Paris on Saturday, September 5. Sy brings unusual size and length to the division, but his UFC run has been difficult after setbacks in 2 of his last 3 appearances. Bukauskas has rebuilt his career with a steady second UFC stint and comes to Paris having won 5 of his last 6 fights.
Sy is currently priced at 67¢ on Polymarket, giving him an implied win probability of 67%. Bukauskas sits at 34¢. My projection is slightly more favorable to Sy than the market, largely because his 83-inch reach, wrestling threat, and defensive numbers give him several paths to control where this fight takes place.
Bukauskas is the more experienced UFC fighter and has produced the better recent run, so this is not a spot where Sy should be treated as an overwhelming favorite. Still, Bukauskas absorbs significantly more offense than Sy and has historically been vulnerable to damaging shots. Sy can also force him to think about takedowns, which should create openings for his long punches and kicks. I make Sy approximately 72% to win, a 5% edge at the current 67¢ price.
Statistic | Oumar Sy | Modestas Bukauskas |
|---|---|---|
Age | 30 | 32 |
Height | 6'4" | 6'3" |
Reach | 83" | 76" |
Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
Record | 12-2 | 20-7 |
Sy's UFC career began with considerable promise. He submitted Tuco Tokkos with a rear-naked choke in the opening round of his May 2024 debut, then used his length and wrestling to defeat Da Woon Jung by unanimous decision. That performance showed why Sy can be a difficult light heavyweight to solve. At 6'4" with an 83-inch reach, he has dimensions more commonly associated with the heavyweight division.
The next stretch of his UFC career exposed some areas that remain works in progress. Alonzo Menifield defeated Sy by unanimous decision in June 2025, although Sy rebounded by stopping Brendson Ribeiro with punches in the first round at UFC Paris later that year. His most recent appearance came against Ion Cutelaba in March, when Cutelaba submitted him with a guillotine choke at 4:24 of Round 1.
Sy lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 1.87, and his significant-strike defense stands at 66%. He also averages 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. The 35% takedown accuracy is relatively modest, but the attempts themselves matter because opponents cannot simply settle into a striking rhythm against him.
Bukauskas is 20-7 and has already experienced the highs and lows of a lengthy UFC career. Since returning to the promotion in 2023, he has put together his best sustained run at this level. Bukauskas submitted Marcin Prachnio in July 2024, stopped Rafael Cerqueira in February 2025, edged Cutelaba by split decision that May, and knocked out Paul Craig at the end of Round 1 in Paris.
Nikita Krylov ended that run with a third-round knockout in January 2026, but Bukauskas returned in May and earned a split-decision victory over late replacement Christian Edwards. That leaves him 5-1 across his most recent 6 appearances.
Bukauskas is primarily a mobile kickboxer who can work from either stance. He uses lateral movement, kicks, and long combinations rather than relying on constant forward pressure. His experience should help him manage the unusual reach disadvantage he faces here, but Sy's extra 7 inches of reach could make clean entries difficult.
Statistically, Bukauskas lands just over 3 significant strikes per minute while absorbing close to 4. His takedown defense has been a strength, sitting above 80%. That figure is important against Sy. If Bukauskas repeatedly stuffs early takedown attempts and forces Sy into an extended kickboxing match, his chances of producing the upset improve considerably.
Bukauskas is experienced enough to punish mistakes, particularly if Sy becomes impatient after his loss to Cutelaba. That makes 67¢ a more attractive entry than anything approaching the mid-70s. Still, Sy's reach, lower rate of significant strikes absorbed, and ability to threaten takedowns create the stronger overall matchup for the Frenchman on home soil.