Updated September 3, 2026
Morgan Charriere gets a home-country fight against Felipe Lima on Saturday, September 5, at UFC Paris, a featherweight pairing between fighters with very different routes to victory. Charriere brings greater finishing power and a 1-inch height and reach advantage, while Lima has been the more dependable defensive fighter during his short UFC run.
Polymarket currently prices Felipe Lima at 64¢, representing a 64% implied probability, with Charriere available at 37¢. My projection comes out slightly stronger on Lima than the market. I have Lima winning 68% of the time, creating a 4% edge at the current 64¢ price.
The biggest reason is Lima's defensive reliability. He absorbs only 2.91 significant strikes per minute and owns an 85% takedown defense rate. Charriere is dangerous enough to punish mistakes, but he also absorbs 4.51 significant strikes per minute. Against an opponent who can mix striking with wrestling attempts and work through extended exchanges, that defensive gap matters.
Statistic | Morgan Charriere | Felipe Lima |
|---|---|---|
Age | 30 | 28 |
Height | 5'8" | 5'6" |
Reach | 69" | 68" |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Record | 21-12-1 | 14-2 |
Charriere enters this matchup trying to rebound from his December 2025 knockout loss to Melquizael Costa. Costa ended that fight with a high kick only 1:14 into the opening round, producing the first striking stoppage loss of Charriere's long professional career. That result followed a third-round knockout victory over Nate Landwehr in July 2025 and a unanimous decision loss to Nathaniel Wood earlier that year.
There is no mystery about Charriere's most dangerous weapon. He can hit. The former Cage Warriors featherweight champion owns 13 knockout victories among his 21 professional wins, and 62% of his victories have come by KO or TKO. He lands 4.02 significant strikes per minute and averages 0.88 knockdowns per 15 minutes.
Charriere can also wrestle when needed. He averages 2.06 takedowns per 15 minutes and an 83% takedown defense rate, backed by a background that includes black belts in judo and luta livre. Still, his most effective performances usually come when he can establish his kicking game, control distance, and create openings for heavier punches.
Lima is 14-2 and had won 14 straight professional fights after losing his debut before Payton Talbott ended that streak by unanimous decision at UFC 317 in June 2025. Lima had previously defeated Miles Johns by unanimous decision and submitted Muhammad Naimov in his UFC debut.
The Talbott fight exposed one concern, that Lima can struggle when an opponent controls range and builds a steady striking lead. Talbott landed 59 significant strikes compared with Lima's 26 and won all 3 judges' scorecards 29-28. Charriere has enough power to make Lima pay if he starts slowly again.
Still, Lima's overall defensive skill gives him more ways to manage this matchup. He has absorbed 2.91 significant strikes per minute while defending roughly 64% of significant strikes and 85% of takedown attempts. He also averages 2.18 takedowns per 15 minutes, giving him an alternative if Charriere begins finding success at striking range.
Lima's 4 knockouts, 3 submissions and 7 decision victories also illustrate how comfortable he is winning fights in different ways. Charriere's finishing threat is greater, but Lima does not need to trade power shots with him. He can pressure behind combinations, force clinch situations, threaten level changes, and make Charriere work through every phase.
If Charriere cannot land something damaging in the opening stages, the matchup increasingly favors Lima. His defensive discipline, age advantage, and broader route to winning rounds make him the more trustworthy side across 15 minutes. Charriere remains dangerous enough that 64¢ is close to a fair market number, but my 68% projection leaves enough room for a Lima position at the current price.