Gauge Young vs Stan Dorsainvil Prediction & Fight Preview - 8/22/2026
Updated August 21, 2026
Updated August 21, 2026
Gauge Young and Stan Dorsainvil meet in a lightweight bout Saturday, August 22, 2026, at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. Young enters as the more experienced fighter at 11-3, while Dorsainvil brings an unbeaten 5-0 professional record into his promotional debut. The betting market has Young favored, but the price matters considerably in a matchup where Dorsainvil's grappling presents a legitimate threat.
Attribute | Gauge Young | Stan Dorsainvil |
|---|---|---|
Age | 26 | 26 |
Height | 5'9" | 5'10" |
Reach | 70" | 76" |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Record | 11-3-0 | 5-0-0 |
This is an interesting matchup because the fighters arrive with very different levels of experience. Young has already spent 3 fights inside the UFC and has gone the full 15 minutes in each of them. He has 6.32 significant strikes landed per minute and 5.12 significant strikes absorbed per minute. He also owns a 76% takedown-defense rate, which could prove particularly important against Dorsainvil.
Young's recent UFC run has also been much better than his overall record might suggest. After losing a unanimous decision to Evan Elder in April 2025, he rebounded with a unanimous decision over Maheshate in August 2025 before beating veteran Thiago Moisés by split decision in April 2026. Against Maheshate, Young landed 112 significant strikes and added 3 takedowns. Against Moisés, he landed 122 significant strikes to 45 for his opponent and recorded 1 knockdown.
Moisés is an experienced grappler, yet Young was able to keep the fight competitive on the mat while producing considerably more offense. Young's striking output has increased substantially in later rounds, averaging 20 significant strikes in Round 1, 38 in Round 2, and 47 in Round 3. That means he should have the gas tank if this fight lasts into the third.
Dorsainvil is an unbeaten prospect at 5-0 as a professional, with 3 submissions and 1 knockout among his 5 victories. His most recent fight came in May 2026, when he stopped Dan Holt by TKO from punches in Round 3 at LFA 233. Before that, Dorsainvil submitted Johnny Smith by guillotine choke in Round 1, defeated Cedric Katambwa by unanimous decision, and submitted Joao Guerra and Hernandez Banks by guillotine choke.
The grappling threat is clear from the Haitian. Dorsainvil is particularly dangerous when he can connect his striking entries to takedowns and front-headlock positions. His 76-inch reach is another weapon because it allows him to attack from farther outside before closing distance.
The problem for Dorsainvil is that this will be a significant jump in opposition. He has just 5 professional fights, and none came inside the UFC. Young, meanwhile, has already dealt with UFC-level competition over 15-minute fights and has shown that he can maintain or increase his offensive activity late.
The market is also giving Dorsainvil considerable credit for being unbeaten. That is understandable, but an undefeated record does not automatically translate to a matchup against a fighter with 3 UFC appearances and recent wins over established competition. Dorsainvil has finished 4 of his 5 professional victories, but Young has never been stopped in his UFC career and has demonstrated strong takedown defense against UFC opponents.
My projection gives Young a 64% chance of winning. I expect Dorsainvil to have his best moments early, particularly if he can use his reach to initiate clinches and grappling exchanges. As the fight progresses, however, Young's experience and higher sustained striking output should begin to show. A decision victory is the most likely outcome, although Young's late-round volume gives him some potential to create a finish if Dorsainvil's defense deteriorates.
