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UFC Predictions
UFC Betting
No. 3 in the world by Forbes behind basketball and soccer) it only makes sense that the passion people have for the sport translates to betting. Sportsbooks are well aware of this and make it easy for bettors to have something riding on the outcome of the bouts. You can bet on who will win, how they will win, when they will win, and how long the fight goes, among other offerings.
Can I legally bet on UFC?
Yes! Well, the answer to this question is yes for the majority of Americans. Over 30 states currently offer legalized sports wagering within their state’s borders.
Of course, this was not always the case. Until May 2018, only Nevada had legal sports wagering. The Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) of 1992 prevented states from making their own decisions as to the legality of sports gambling within its borders. The 2018 overturning of PASPA opened the doors for each state to make their own decisions, and to date, 31 states have taken advantage, at least in some capacity.
The Basics of UFC Betting
MMA betting uses the moneyline, which may appear a little daunting at first glance, but is actually pretty simple once you have an understanding how it works. To see the moneyline in action, let’s take a look at the odds on an actual fight from a UFC Fight Night card.
The odds on a bout between Alex Oliveira and Niko Price are shown as:
Alex Oliveira +145
Niko Price -170
Price is the betting favorite, which is signified by the – (minus) before his odds, while Oliveira is the underdog, as signified by the + (plus) before his odds. What the -170 for Price means, is that you have to risk $170 to win $100 if you want to bet on Price. It’s important to note that you do not have to wager $100, but moneyline odds are given in relationship to $100 amounts for ease of calculations. If you want to bet on Price, you could wager $17 to win $10, bet $51 to win $30, or bet $680 to win $400. You’re only limited by your sportsbook’s minimum and maximum wagers.
For Oliveira, the +145 means that for every $100 you wager on Oliveira you will win $145 if he wins the fight. Again, you do not have to wager $100 on Oliveira. You could wager $20 to win $29, $50 to win $72.50, or $300 to win $435, etc.
Betting on the Winner
Choosing the winner of the fight, as was shown above, is the most popular way to bet MMA fights, but there are plenty of other options for betting who wins a fight. In the Oliveira vs. Price fight, you can also wager on how the fight winner will be determined; whether it’s by knockout, judge’s decision, or by submission. The odds are:
Price by KO/TKO/DQ +138
Oliveira by KO/TKO/DQ +450
Price by Decision +300
Oliveira by Decision +400
Price by Submission +1200
Oliveira by Submission +600
Draw +6600
As you know from above, the first item on the list – Price wins by knockout, technical knockout, or disqualification returns $138 for a $100 wager, but now Price must win by one of those three ways for you to win your bet. If Price wins by decision or disqualification those who bet on him to win by KO/TKO/DQ have a losing wager even though they had the correct fighter winning the bout.
It is interesting to note the odds to win by submission, where Oliveira is +600 and Price is +1200, which is due to Price not really being a submission fighter.
The odds on a draw are generous at +6600, but very few bouts end in draws, which is why the odds are so high.
You may also see methods of victory grouped together, as is the case for the Price vs. Oliveira fight. Here, you find odds of:
Price by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission +120
Oliveira by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission +260
Price by Decision +300
Oliveira by Decision +400
Draw +6600
These odds are calculated in the same manner as the others, but now your fighter can win by any method of stoppage if you wager the KO/TKO/DQ or Submission bet. A $100 on Oliveira to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission returns $260 if you’re correct, while a $20 bet returns $52 in profit.
Round Betting
Rounds are another way of betting which fighter wins the bout, but here you’re asked to pick which round the fighter wins in. The fighter can win by submission, knockout, or disqualification, as the only requirement is that you predict the correct round the fight is won in. Here, the odds are:
Price Round 1 +300
Price Round 2 +500
Price Round 3 +800
Oliveira Round 1 +550
Oliveira Round 2 +800
Oliveira Round 3 +1400
If you bet Price to win in the second round and he does, a $100 wager would return $500 in winnings, while a $30 bet would give you $90 in profits. But if Price wins in the first or third rounds, or by decision, your wager is a loss.
Total Rounds
Betting total rounds in an MMA fight is practically the equivalent of betting an over/under in team sports, as you are betting how long the bout is going to last. For the Price vs. Oliveira there are two different wagers offered for how long the bout goes. The first is over/under 1.5 rounds. With rounds lasting five minutes, a half-round is 2 minutes and 30 seconds. So, basically, you are betting if the fight will last longer than 7 minutes or 30 seconds without being stopped for any reason. The odds offered are:
Over 1.5 rounds -162
Under 1.5 rounds +120
If you wager the fight will last longer than the midway point of the second round, you’re asked to risk $162 to win $100, but again, you don’t have to wager $162. It can be $16.20 to win $10, $34.40 to win $20, etc. If you want to wager the right does not last to the halfway point of the second round, you risk $100 to win $120. You can also risk $25 to win $30, $75 to win $90, etc.
The other wager offered is simply betting if the fight goes the distance or not. Here, the odds are:
Fight Goes Distance +150
Fight Does Not Go Distance -200
If you wager the fight goes the distance, you risk $100 to win $150, but need all of the rounds to be completed without a fight stoppage. If you wager the fight does not go the distance, you’re asked to risk $200 to win $100, but need the fight stopped for any reason. If you wager the fight does not go the distance, it makes no difference which fighter wins or how the bout is settled, only that the fight is not settled by judge’s decision.
Those are the basic MMA wagers offered on a typical bout. For the really big bouts, you may see even more bet offerings, such as which fighter wins a particular round or more Total Round offerings. But as long as you have a good grasp of the moneyline and how it relates to MMA betting, you will be ready for anything the sportsbooks throw at you.
Prop Wagering
Prop wagering in MMA is similar to moneyline wagering, albeit with a more specific predicted outcome in exchange for a better rate of return.
We will once again use Fighter A and their -150 flat line as an example. The -150 flat line is only considered in regard to which fighter wins the fight, with the method of victory not considered. Prop wagering allows the bettor to pick a more specific outcome with Fighter A winning and get a better price for doing so.
For example, Fighter A might have +200 inside the distance (ITD) line. That means the same fighter would require laying a minus figure on the flat line and also return $200 on a $100 wager on the ITD line. An ITD wager on Fighter A would require them to win without the bout reaching the maximum scheduled duration and having the judge’s scorecards come into play. An ITD wager would be considered a winner if Fighter A wins via a stoppage of any kind. It would not matter if it were a win via KO, TKO, submission or disqualification, so long as the referee waves the fight off and Fighter A is the winner.
UFC props are offered in a long list by the time fight times roll around, and the rate of return on props raises based on the level of specificity. Continuing with Fighter A, let’s say that Fighter A is a grappling specialist, and has numerous wins via submission on their resume. Their prop line to win specifically by submission would likely not look wildly different than their ITD line, perhaps +260. In a scenario like this, it would be their prop to win via KO or TKO that would bring the much greater rate of return. That figure could look like +1000 or even higher in some spots.
Taking it yet another step further, betting a specific outcome to occur in a specific round can drastically raise the rate of return. Adding the specificity of the outcome happening in a specific round gives something of an exponential jump on rate of return. Let’s go back to our Fighter A to win by submission at +260 example. Adding that outcome to occur in Round 2 might raise the rate of return to the neighborhood of +1500.
When playing UFC props, bear in mind the more specific the outcome predicted, the greater the rate of return. When wagering, always weigh the rate of return against the probability of the outcome.
Parlay Wagering
Parlay wagering in UFC is the most similar, or essentially the same as it is in other sports. Parlay wagering is combining two or more outcomes in a bet with a raised rate of return for picking all of the outcomes correctly. A loss on any one of the pieces of a parlay makes the parlay a losing bet, so it does require us to be perfect on these bets.
Like other sports, a parlay payout in UFC is calculated based on the odds for each specific outcome in combination. Going back to our Fighter A example who was set at -150, we can explore odds on parlays including Fighter A.
Let’s say we want to use a two fighter parlay with Fighter A and Fighter C, who is also a -150 favorite. That two fighter parlay would return in the neighborhood of +177 were both fighters to win. A loss by either fighter would mean the parlay is a losing bet. When betting parlays, be sure to shop around different sportsbooks for the best rate of return. Also keep in mind the more legs added to your parlay can significantly increase your rate of return, but it also makes the bet more difficult to win.
With UFC betting being such an odds based endeavor, it can be quite helpful for sports bettors to keep multiple sportsbook accounts in play. It is not infrequent that you can find better odds for your bet just by shopping around a bit. Here are some of the very best ones for UFC wagering.
UFC Betting Strategies
UFC bettors are best served to remember that betting on MMA is a journey and not a destination. With no offseason, UFC betting endeavors take place year-round. There is never an overwhelming importance on making a huge score on just one event. The key is long-term profit and perhaps being able to raise your betting limits over time.
- Bankroll Management
- Sportsbook Bonus Hunting
Bankroll Management
Your bankroll is the money you have that has been allocated for sports betting. Protecting and being prudent with your bankroll is absolutely the best favor you can do for yourself. Without question, the most common mistake made by sports gamblers is overextending their bankroll or betting beyond their means.
There are varying theories as to how much should prudently be wagered on each bet, but the consensus falls between 2% and 4% of your total bankroll per wager. If your bankroll is $1000, this means your wagers should be within the $20-$40 window. This will allow you to have long-term sustainability and not bring strife to the other portions of your life by overextending yourself on sports betting.
Sportsbook Bonus Hunting
The sports betting industry is a quite competitive one, and that is an advantage for you, the bettor. The competitiveness means you will have a very strong new player offer from each sportsbook. That holds especially true when taking advantage of excusive links here on ATS.io.
Whether it is a large risk-free bet or a smaller bet-and-get offer, it is absolutely essential to take advantage of these top UFC offers from each of the sportsbooks. The free funds offered simply for creating an account and making a portion of your wagers on an additional platform are a massive value that cannot be understated.
Do not fall into the trap of comfortability on just one platform. The import of welcome offers is just as crucial if not more so than shopping around for best betting lines on multiple platforms.
Sportsbook To Check For The Best UFC Bonuses
BetMGM Sportsbook
BetMGM is a great sportsbook for MMA bettors. They have loads of offerings for every pay per view and Fight Night card. Every UFC fight will be made available, as well as offerings for other MMA promotions.
Whether you are looking for very specific props or over/under fight wagering, BetMGM will have you covered. They will also give you a sizeable first bet to get your bankroll boosted immediately when creating your account. Just follow the link below for that.
Caesars Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook is a great choice for MMA bettors. They offer all of the fight options UFC bettors have come to expect. Whether you want to bet flat lines, props, over/under or parlays, Caesars will have the offerings you need.
Caesars is certainly one of the most generous when it comes to new player offers. That holds particularly true for new customers that sign up using our exclusive promo code. Those perks do not come solely with the huge First Bet offer, but also with Caesars Rewards perks. These can be used at Caesars establishments throughout the country and can also be used for free wagers and more.
DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings has become one of the behemoths of the sports betting industry, and for very good reason. Along with their countless standard MMA betting opportunities, DraftKings offers the most extensive prop betting markets for MMA fans. This includes a fantastic platform for live betting.
FanDuel Sportsbook
FanDuel, very much like DraftKings, has fully made the pivot from top daily fantasy sports site to top sportsbook while also maintaining the daily fantast sports level. FanDuel is another top option for UFC wagering, as they are in line with the other very top sportsbooks and have solid prop offerings as well.
FanDuel is very competitive with their promotional offerings as well. Their No Sweat Bet option for new customers is very enticing, and that is not all they offer for new users.