Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction - 9/26/2025
Updated September 26, 2025
Updated September 26, 2025
The Philadelphia Phillies will face the Minnesota Twins in the opening game of their final regular-season series on Friday night. The Phillies have locked up a division title and have managed to avoid the Wild Card round. They will try to build momentum toward the postseason with a win here. Before the Twins and Phillies take the field on Friday, continue reading to get my Twins vs Phillies prediction for tonight.
The Phillies enter this final homestand riding momentum from two straight wins, including a 1–0 shutout win over the Miami Marlins last night. They enter with a 94–65 record and are locked in a tight battle with Milwaukee for the top seed in the National League. Minnesota is 69–90 and already eliminated from postseason contention, making this a game that is all about pride for the Twins.
The Twins will send Joe Ryan to the mound in his career-high 30th start of 2025. He’s had a respectable season with a 13-9 record and a 3.47 ERA. The Phillies will counter with Aaron Nola, who has struggled mightily this season. He enters this start with a 4–10 record and a 6.46 ERA. Nola’s recent start against Arizona was rough. He allowed four runs over 5.1 innings. Ryan is the better pitcher going into this game but the Phillies have the better lineup.
Philadelphia has won two straight games and they enter this series opener two games back of Milwaukee for the top spot in the National League. Minnesota has won three of their last four games, but they have lacked consistency throughout the 2025 season.
Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
Kyle Schwarber | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
Aaron Nola | Strikeouts | Under 5.5 |
Joe Ryan | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
Kyle Schwarber | Total bases | Over 1.5 |
Score Projection: Phillies 5 – Twins 4
Win Probability: Phillies 61%, Twins 39%
I think we are going to see a high-scoring game between the Phillies and Twins on Friday night. Aaron Nola's struggles have been well-documented so far this year and I expect the Twins to get to him early in this game. But the Phillies have a ton of firepower of their own and they should be able to provide plenty of scoring themselves. My best bet for this interleague matchup is for the game to go over the total, as we should see both sides do their share of scoring in this interleague contest.
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Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
