Marlins vs Nationals Preview: Can Miami Stay in the Wild Card Race?
Updated August 31, 2026
Updated August 31, 2026
The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals will close out a four-game series Monday evening at Nationals Park, with first pitch set for 6:45 p.m. ET. Washington took the first two games of the series, but Miami bounced back Sunday with a 6-2 come-from-behind win, scoring six runs in the ninth inning.
Ryan Gusto (1-3, 3.98 ERA) gets the start for Miami and enters the finale pitching some of his best baseball of the season. Washington will turn to Will Dion (1-1, 3.67 ERA), who’s making his first career MLB start in what’s expected to be a bullpen game for the Nationals.
Let’s preview Monday’s matchup, make our Marlins vs Nationals prediction, and break down a few of the biggest storylines heading into the series finale.
I’m taking the Marlins to get it done Monday night in D.C. Miami is currently priced at 52¢ on Polymarket, which I think is a pretty reasonable price for a team that has dominated this matchup throughout the season.
The Marlins are 9-3 against the Nationals this year, and I like them to build off the momentum from Sunday’s crazy comeback win and leave Washington with a series split. I’m also expecting another solid outing from Ryan Gusto to close out what has been an excellent month of August for the right-hander.
Miami’s offense has been in a bit of a funk lately, but this looks like a good opportunity to get things going again. Will Dion is making his first career MLB start in what’s expected to be a bullpen game for Washington, and the Nationals rank 29th out of 30 MLB teams with a 5.22 bullpen ERA this season.
This also lines up with the ATS.io Quantitative Model, which gives Miami a 58% chance to win and projects a 5-3 Marlins victory. Check out our full Marlins vs Nationals prediction for more analysis and the latest matchup data.
On the surface, second-year pitcher Ryan Gusto’s numbers aren’t all that impressive. He’s just 1-3 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.33 WHIP on the season. However, he’s really started to put things together over the past month.
Gusto has posted an impressive 1.85 ERA in August, and the Marlins have won five of his last six starts. That includes four shutout innings in Miami’s 3-2 win over Washington on August 21, and he followed that up with 5.2 more scoreless innings against Boston last week.
Gusto will look to close out August on a high note Monday, though it may be easier said than done against a Nationals lineup that has already faced him twice this season. Washington has been one of the better offensive teams in baseball this year, leading the majors with 190 home runs while also ranking inside the top 10 in hits, walks, RBIs, stolen bases, OPS, and just about every other major offensive category.
There’s just one month left in the regular season, and the Marlins are currently on the outside looking in. Miami sits third in the NL East, 13 games behind the Braves, and is 3.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot. The Diamondbacks currently hold that spot, while the Padres are also three games ahead of Miami.
Polymarket isn’t particularly optimistic about the Marlins’ chances, either. Miami is currently priced at just 5¢ to make the playoffs, implying roughly a 5% chance of avoiding a third straight year watching the postseason from home. That seems pretty low for a team only 3.5 games back, right?
Well, the schedule probably has something to do with it. According to Tankathon, Miami has the fourth-toughest remaining schedule in baseball based on its opponents’ combined winning percentage. The Marlins still have series against the Dodgers, Braves, Cubs twice, Padres, and Diamondbacks before the regular season wraps up.
Even their next series against the last-place Royals may be tougher than it looks. Kansas City has won five straight series and 13 of its last 15 games. So, if Miami is going to make a serious run at a Wild Card spot, there won’t be much room for error over the final month.
Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals sit at 65-74, nine games under .500 and 8.5 games back of the third and final NL Wild Card spot. They’re not completely out of the playoff race either, but the odds are certainly stacked against them at this point. Still, I’m sure they’d love nothing more than to play spoiler at home against a division rival.
Entering this weekend, Washington had lost five straight series, including its most recent series against the Rockies, when the Nationals dropped two of three at home to a team currently tied for the worst record in baseball. A lot of Washington’s struggles have come back to its pitching, particularly the starting rotation.
The Nationals rank 26th in MLB with just 32 quality starts this season, and half of those have come from Cade Cavalli, who’s been one of the few bright spots in the rotation. That lack of reliable starting pitching has also put plenty of pressure on a bullpen that, as mentioned earlier, has struggled throughout the year.
The Nationals may be running out of time to make a playoff push of their own, but they can still make things a lot more difficult for Miami by taking another game from the Marlins on Monday night.
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