Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 Prediction & Preview: Does Schlittler Give New York the Edge?
Updated September 28, 2026
Updated September 28, 2026
The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees renew their rivalry Tuesday night, with Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series set for 8 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. It’s a rematch of last year’s Wild Card Series, when New York came back from a Game 1 loss to win the series 2-1.
The winner of this best-of-three series will advance to face the No. 1 seed Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS. Boston will send Payton Tolle (9-6, 3.03 ERA) to the mound for Game 1, while New York counters with expected 2026 AL Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.95 ERA).
Our Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 prediction is Yankees to win. Below, we break down the matchup and explain why we like New York to take the opener at home.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Lately, the Red Sox are starting to look a lot more like the team that struggled out of the gate and fired manager Alex Cora than the one that caught fire over the summer. Boston’s offense has cooled off considerably down the stretch, and the lineup is banged up heading into the playoffs. Look for Schlittler to shut down this struggling Red Sox offense and the Yankees to take Game 1 in front of their home crowd.”
Cam Schlittler Has Dominated the Red Sox
Schlittler went 2-1 with a 0.74 ERA in four starts against Boston this season, allowing just two earned runs over 24.1 innings. He also enters the playoffs in great form with a 1.17 ERA over his final nine starts, one year after throwing eight scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts against Boston in the deciding Wild Card Game 3.
Boston’s Offense Is Slumping at the Wrong Time
The Red Sox scored just 71 runs in 24 games in September, the fewest in baseball, while also finishing last in batting average (.219) and OPS (.651). Now, they have to turn things around against a pitcher who has already given them problems all year.
The Yankees Have Hit Left-Handed Pitching Well
New York finished with a 105 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, seventh-best in MLB, while also posting a .417 SLG and .172 ISO. Tolle has been impressive, but the Yankees have had plenty of success against lefties and should be able to create some scoring chances against him in Game 1.
Recommended Prediction:
Yankees to Win Game 1
Current Market Price:
57¢
Model Win Probability:
64.5%
Market-Implied Probability:
57.0%
Model Edge:
+7.5%
Buy Up To:
63¢
Model Trade Confidence:
78/100
There’s plenty of familiarity between these two teams after 13 regular-season meetings, with the Yankees narrowly winning the season series 7-6. Game 1 gives us another close matchup on paper, even though we see value on New York to take the opener.
That doesn’t necessarily carry over to the entire series, though, as our Red Sox vs Yankees AL Wild Card series preview looks at why Boston could still have some value over a full three games. For Game 1 specifically, it starts with the Yankees’ ace on the mound.
Schlittler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and is the expected 2026 AL Cy Young winner. He finished the regular season 14-6 with a 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 239 strikeouts across 193.2 innings.
He’s also a big reason the ATS Quantitative Model gives New York a 64.5% chance to win Game 1, compared to the current market-implied probability of 57%.
Schlittler has been especially good against Boston. He made four starts against the Red Sox this season, posting a 0.74 ERA with 27 strikeouts across 24.1 innings. The Yankees went 3-1 in those games, with Schlittler allowing just two earned runs.
Interestingly, the one loss came on June 25, the game that helped jump-start Boston’s midseason turnaround. Schlittler held the Red Sox scoreless through four innings before four unearned runs crossed in the fifth. He still finished with nine strikeouts over five innings.
One challenge for the Yankees, however, could be Payton Tolle. The 23-year-old lefty earned the Game 1 start after going 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 171 strikeouts across 148.2 innings this season. He also finished strong, posting a 1.53 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 17.2 innings across three September starts.
Tolle’s success against New York likely played a role in getting the nod. He faced the Yankees twice this season and allowed just one run on four hits across 13 innings, striking out 18. His best outing came June 26, when he allowed just one hit over seven scoreless innings in a 6-1 Boston win.
He also got a small taste of this matchup in last year’s Wild Card Series, recording one out in relief during Game 2 at Yankee Stadium. So while New York has been solid against left-handed pitching this season, the Yankees haven’t been able to figure out Tolle yet. We’ll see if that changes Tuesday night.
Injuries could play a big part in this series, especially for New York. Right fielder Aaron Judge is dealing with a right calf/soleus strain and is trying to make it back for the Wild Card Series. DH Giancarlo Stanton (left calf) and center fielder Trent Grisham (right hamstring) are also working their way back from injuries.
Boston has some injury concerns of its own. Starting pitcher Garrett Crochet has been out since April with left shoulder inflammation but is trying to return for the postseason. Catcher/first baseman Mickey Gasper is expected to miss the series with a right biceps injury, while infielder Curtis Mead is working his way back from a fractured wrist.
With several important players either out or less than 100%, health could end up playing a major role in this best-of-three series.
We’re backing the Yankees to win Game 1 at home. New York has the edge in several key areas, and our model sees solid value at the current 57¢ price.
The Yankees will also be looking for a better start than last year, when Boston came into Yankee Stadium and won Game 1, 3-1. New York bounced back to win the next two, and we like the Yankees to get off to a faster start this time around.
For more game previews and analysis throughout the postseason, check out our daily MLB predictions.
