Spain vs Croatia Nations League Preview & Prediction: Can Croatia Find a Goal in Seville?
Updated September 28, 2026
Updated September 28, 2026
Spain welcome Croatia to Seville on Tuesday, after opening their Nations League campaign with a thrilling 3-2 win over England at Wembley. The world champions created 3.12 expected goals (xG), but they also conceded twice in an end-to-end contest. Croatia arrive with momentum of their own after winning 2-1 in Czechia, generating 1.84 xG and 16 shots in Slaven Bilić’s first competitive match back in charge.
Spain are clear favorites to win, and their attacking display in London supports that status. We’re trading Croatia over 0.5 team goals at 48¢. With Spain looking surprisingly vulnerable for spells at Wembley, the visitors have the means to find a breakthrough of their own on Tuesday.
Why Croatia Scoring is the best available angle
“Croatia do not need to match Spain’s attacking output. Their 1.84 xG in Prague and Spain’s willingness to leave space during the England game make one Croatian goal a more appealing angle than taking on the hosts at a staggering 83 cents in the match-winner market.”
Croatia over 0.5 goals at 48¢
The price implies a 48% chance of Croatia scoring. Our 55% projection gives the trade a seven percentage point edge.
Spain at 83¢ to win
Spain are heavy favorites as the reigning World Champions head home to play their first competitive match since winning the World Cup. While we project Spain to win, there is no edge whatsoever in an 83 cent valuation.
Bilic style could trouble Spain
Croatia remain one of the most technically astute teams on the planet, but Bilic has a more direct playing style than predecessor Slatko Dalic. Spain were troubled by England when the Three Lions played more direct on Saturday, and Bilic may look to cede control to threaten the Spanish in transition.
Recommended Position
Croatia Over 0.5 Team Goals
Market Price
48¢
Model Probability:
55%
Market Probability
48%
Model Edge:
7%
Entry Threshold:
51¢
Predicted Score:
Spain 3-1 Croatia
Spain’s 3-2 win at Wembley was a strong attacking statement, as the World Champions registered 15 shots and 3.12 xG away to England. However, Spain were gifted two goals by English defensive errors, which inflated this figure and oversold their effectiveness going forward.
However, Alex Baena and Mikel Oyarzabal were impressive in their goalscoring cameos, and the pair are contenders to start in Seville, giving Luis de la Fuente options even on a short turnaround.
England also had 13 shots, 36 touches in Spain’s box and 1.74 xG. That xG figure includes Harry Kane’s missed penalty, so it would exaggerate Spain’s open-play defensive problems if treated on its own. The two goals conceded and the volume of box entries still show that an opponent with enough attacking quality can reach dangerous areas. Our position depends on Croatia doing so once, not controlling the match.
Croatia outshot Czechia 16-5 and won the xG battle 1.84 to 0.92 in Prague. Luka Modrić scored from the edge of the area, and Marco Pašalić headed the winner from an Ivan Perišić cross. That mix of midfield control, deliveries from wide positions and impact from the bench gives Bilić more than one route to a goal.
Spain are a much tougher defensive test than Czechia, and Croatia will almost certainly have less of the ball in Seville. Modrić and Mateo Kovačić may try to control the game in phases, but in all likelihood will be looking for opportunities in transition once Croatia win possession and step off the Spanish 'carousel', while Perišić can attack the space Spain leave when their fullbacks advance. Croatia are without Martin Baturina, Josip Juranović and Martin Erlić, but the attacking players who produced the Prague win remain available.
Spain’s stronger squad, home advantage and 3.12 xG against England make a home win the most likely result. Croatia’s 1.84 xG in their opener and Spain’s two goals conceded at Wembley give the visitors a credible chance to contribute to the scoreline. We project a 55% chance of at least one Croatia goal, seven points above the 48¢ market price. Take Croatia over 0.5 team goals at 48¢, subject to checking the confirmed lineups and live price before kickoff.
