Türkiye vs Italy Nations League Preview & Prediction: Montella Hopes to Haunt Italy
Updated September 28, 2026
Updated September 28, 2026
Türkiye and Italy meet in Bursa, with both looking for their first points in Nations League Group A1. Türkiye lost 1-0 to France on Matchday 1, while Italy fell 2-0 at home to Belgium. Those results make this look like a meeting of struggling attacks, but the chances behind the scores tell a different story.
Türkiye generated 1.21 expected goals (xG) against France and allowed 1.17, a close contest despite having only 36% possession. Italy produced 1.70 xG and 21 shots against Belgium but conceded 2.76 xG. Roberto Mancini is expected to rotate heavily for the trip, while the hosts must cope without several established names. The market still gives Italy a slight edge. Our pick is Türkiye to win in regulation at 36¢.
Why We're Backing a home win
“The case for Türkiye is about chance creation and Italy’s unsettled lineup. Their 1-0 loss to France came despite winning the xG battle (1.21 xG - 1.17 xG), while Italy struggled to contain Belgium in transition while conceding 2.76 xG. The Turks will look to exploit this weakness in a patched up Italian defence, and should have the firepower to beat Donnarumma in the Italian goal.”
Türkiye at 36¢
The market gives the home side a 36% implied chance of winning. Our 42% estimate creates a six percentage point edge at that entry price thank to a superior defence that restricted a talented French attack to 1.17 xG, and a shaky Italian backline that just leaked 2.76 xG at home to Belgium.
Italy at 38¢, draw at 28¢
This is a nearly even three-way market. A draw is a significant risk to the outright Türkiye trade, even if the hosts produce the better chances. Donnarumma has produced heroics in the Italian goal before, and the Turks could struggle to find a way past him if he is in form.
Over 2.5 goals at 59¢, under at 42¢
Italy’s 1.70 xG for and 2.76 against versus Belgium make a low-scoring pick less secure than the two opening results suggest. We prefer the home-win price to a totals position.
Recommended Position
Türkiye to win
Market Price
36¢
Model Probability:
42%
Market Probability
36%
Model Edge:
6%
Entry Threshold:
38¢
Predicted Score:
Türkiye 2-1 Italy
France controlled possession, but Türkiye matched their 12 shots and narrowly led the xG count, 1.21 to 1.17. Arda Güler and the runners around him found opportunities in transition even without sustained control of midfield. Against an Italy defense that gave Belgium 19 shots and 2.76 xG, those attacking spells should carry more weight.
Türkiye will still be short of attacking options. Kenan Yıldız and Hakan Çalhanoğlu are unavailable, Orkun Kökçü is an injury concern, and goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır is suspended after his late red card against France. Altay Bayındır is expected to start. This is why the projection is a narrow home edge rather than a comfortable win.
Italy’s defeat to Belgium was not a blank attacking performance: 21 shots, 34 touches in the opposition box and 1.70 xG produced no goal. Italy can trouble Türkiye’s changed goalkeeper and win the midfield through its technical quality through Frattesi and Tonali. That is the main threat to this pick.
The bigger question is how much of that opening midfield and attack Mancini carries into Bursa. He has indicated rotation across a crowded schedule, with Nicolò Barella among the players expected to sit out the trip. Alessandro Bastoni’s availability improves the back line, but a reshuffled side has little time to settle after conceding high-quality chances to Belgium. Türkiye’s home pressure and Güler’s movement between the lines can test those new combinations.
We make Türkiye a 42% winner, compared with the 36¢ market price. Italy created enough against Belgium to score here, and Çakır’s absence raises the chance of a goal for the visitors. But Türkiye’s competitive xG showing against France, home advantage and Italy’s rotation give the hosts the stronger value case. Back Türkiye to win in regulation at 36¢; reconsider if the price rises materially or Italy names a stronger midfield than expected.
