Belgium vs France Nations League Prediction & Preview: Can Belgium Stop Zidane's Winning Start?
Updated September 28, 2026
Updated September 28, 2026
Belgium welcome France to Brussels tonight looking to build on an impressive opening day win over Italy in Rome, but facing a formidable France side is a very different proposition. France themselves got off to a winning start, but they did lose the xG battle in their 1-0 win over Turkey on Matchday 1. Kylian Mbappe will miss out through injury tonight, and this could prove a turning point in what should be a closely contested match.
We're trading France No at 49¢, an angle supported by Belgium's impressive attacking profile and France's lack of attacking production last time out.
WHY THIS TRADE MAKES SENSE
“France controlled possession against Türkiye without creating too much. Belgium, meanwhile, created 2.76 xG away to Italy. France can still score against a Belgian defense that allowed 1.70 xG, but the hosts have a credible path to a win or draw. ATS projects France No at 54% against a 49¢ entry price.”
Belgium’s attack
The 2-0 win in Italy came with 2.76 xG and 19 shots, although Italy were without Alessandro Bastoni, and France's defensive unit is significantly stronger than Italy's.
France’s narrow opener
France had 64% possession in Türkiye but created 1.17 xG against 1.21 xGA, albeit in a hostile away atmosphere. Mbappé, their only scorer, is out, and while Zidane has an embarrassment of attacking riches at his disposal, none of them can replicate Mbappe's dynamism.
Why not the Under?
Belgium allowed Italy 1.70 xG, while France conceded 1.21 xG in Türkiye. Both sides pose significantly more attacking threat than their Matchday 1 opponents, posing significant risk to the under.
Recommended Position
France No
Market Price
49¢
Model Probability:
54%
Market Probability
49%
Model Edge:
5%
Entry Threshold:
50¢
Predicted Score:
Belgium 2-2 France
Belgium’s opener was more than two well-taken goals. They put up 2.76 xG, reached Italy’s box 25 times and forced Gianluigi Donnarumma into a double save from Charles De Ketelaere and Nicolas Raskin. Kevin De Bruyne set up Mika Godts for the opener, while substitute Dodi Lukébakio added the second.
Italy’s defense was missing Bastoni, so one performance cannot establish Belgium as the better attacking side here. France still allowed Türkiye 1.21 xG and 12 shots, with Mike Maignan making an important save to preserve the 3 points. Belgium have the passing and runners to create against them even if France have more of the ball, with Godts, De Ketelaere and Lukebakio representing significant threat in behind the French backline.
With De Bruyne pulling the strings, Belgium should once again create enough chances to make the breakthrough against a resolute French side.
Mbappé’s absence removes the scorer of France’s winner and their most direct threat behind Belgium’s back line. It does not remove France’s attacking quality. Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Désiré Doué remain elite options, and Olise supplied Mbappé’s goal in Türkiye.
Belgium must defend better than their scoreline in Rome suggests. Italy produced 1.70 xG from 21 shots and had 34 touches in Belgium’s box. Senne Lammens could face another busy night.
France had 64% possession in Türkiye, while Belgium had 44% in Italy. France’s midfield should control longer stretches of play. Belgium’s likely shape places Raskin behind De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans, giving the hosts a defensive screen and two passers capable of releasing attackers quickly after a turnover.
Possession did not translate into superior chances for France on Matchday 1: Türkiye matched their 12 shots and edged the xG count. If Belgium repeat their transition threat from Rome, they can take a point without dominating midfield.
ATS 90-minute projection: Belgium 29%, draw 25%, France 46%. Belgium winning or drawing totals 54%, five percentage points above the 49¢ France No entry. This is our assessment of an early sample, with Belgium’s 1.70 xGA and France’s remaining attacking talent the clearest risks.
Pick: France No at 49¢, with a maximum entry of 50¢. Both teams can score, and France may have more possession, but Belgium’s chance creation gives them a better chance of avoiding defeat than the market price suggests.
