Cubs vs Padres Game 1 Prediction, Preview & Analysis - 9/29/2026
Updated September 28, 2026
Updated September 28, 2026
The Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres will meet Tuesday night at Petco Park in the first game of a best-of-three NL Wild Card Series that has a familiar feel to it. The Cubs eliminated the Padres in 3 games at Wrigley Field last October, then took 5 of 6 meetings during the 2026 regular season. San Diego still enters Game 1 in the better position at home. The Padres finished 91-71, went 51-30 at home, won 18 of their final 22 games, and will hand the ball to Michael King. Chicago closed 89-73 and brings the more productive offense, but its pitching plan is less settled with Kevin Gausman dealing with soreness in his non-throwing shoulder.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“The 54¢ price for the Padres gives too much respect to Chicago’s stronger full-season offensive numbers and 5-1 record against San Diego, while discounting the parts of this specific game that favor the Padres: home field, a confirmed ace on the hill, Chicago’s pitching uncertainty, and San Diego’s late-inning relief pitching advantage.”
San Diego Favored Slightly
Polymarket is pricing San Diego around 54¢ and Chicago around 47¢, which makes the Padres a small favorite rather than a heavy one. My projection comes out at 58.5% for San Diego, creating a 4.5% edge at the current Padres price. That is enough for a play, but it is not large enough to chase aggressively. I would keep San Diego playable through 56¢. At 57¢ or higher, most of the value has been squeezed out of that position.
San Diego Playing Its Best
Chicago scored 850 runs this season and finished with a +147 run differential, while San Diego scored 722 with a +41 differential. The more recent games for both teams changes the math somewhat. San Diego finished 18-4 over its final 22 games, its offense was tied for the best wRC+ in baseball from the start of September, and its best hitters entered October producing far better than they did early in the year. Add King at home and a bullpen built around Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller, and the Padres have a cleaner path to a win from the first inning to the final out.
Recommended Position:
Padres to Win
Current Price:
54¢
Model Probability:
58.5%
Market Probability:
54%
Model Edge:
4.5%
Entry Threshold:
56¢
Model Confidence:
75/100
San Diego has already named King as its starter. He finished 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA over 185 innings and 32 starts, giving the Padres the most settled pitching situation in the opener. His final regular-season start was not sharp, as the Dodgers scored 5 earned runs against him in 4 innings on September 22. All 5 runs came with 2 outs, so Chicago has a clear opening if it can extend innings and force King to work through sustained pressure.
One poor outing should not erase King’s full-season body of work heading into this Cubs vs Padres series opener. He held opponents to a .221 average and finished as San Diego’s most reliable starter. More important for this pick, the Padres do not need him to cover 8 innings. If King can get through 5 or 6 with a lead, San Diego can turn to Morejon and Miller, with Jason Adam also back from a shoulder issue. Miller finished the regular season with a 1.67 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 70 innings, giving the Padres an elite option for the ninth.
The Cubs had not officially named their Game 1 starter. Gausman and Matthew Boyd were the primary candidates, but Gausman has been dealing with soreness in his left, non-throwing shoulder after a diving tag play in his September 23 start. He threw a bullpen session Sunday, yet his availability remained unclear, which is something to monitor when making Cubs vs Padres Game 1 predictions.
Boyd would be a capable alternative. He finished 10-5 with a 3.91 ERA and would be on a normal schedule. Chicago also kept Shota Imanaga fresh by limiting him to 12 pitches in Sunday’s finale, so the Cubs have options. The issue is less about a lack of usable arms and more about certainty. San Diego knows exactly how it wants to open the game. Chicago may have to make its final decision around Gausman’s health.
Any Padres pick has to account for what Chicago did over 162 games. The Cubs scored 850 runs, 128 more than San Diego, and their +147 run differential was far better than the Padres’ +41. Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 45 home runs and 41 stolen bases while producing one of the best all-around seasons in baseball. Chicago also gets Alex Bregman back at an important time.
Bregman returned after suffering facial fractures and then went 4-for-4 with 2 home runs and 4 RBIs in Sunday’s 6-2 win over Boston. Whether he plays third base or serves as the designated hitter, his bat changes the middle of the order. Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, and Dansby Swanson give Chicago enough depth to make King pay if his command slips.
Chicago also owns a major defensive edge. The Cubs finished the regular season with a +70 Fielding Run Value and +72 Outs Above Average, both Statcast-era records. San Diego cannot count on extra outs or poor fielding creating easy runs.
The Padres did not hit like an elite club for much of the season, but their September production was a different story. San Diego finished the regular season by winning 7 straight series and going 18-4 over that stretch. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit 20 home runs after the All-Star break, Manny Machado reached 30 home runs, and Jackson Merrill was one of the club’s hottest hitters late in the year.
Ty France also gives the lineup another difficult out. He finished at .294/.360/.502 in 127 games, and San Diego can surround its stars with enough contact and power to pressure whichever starter Chicago uses. The Padres scored 19 runs over their final 2 games against Arizona and closed the season with a 9-4 win.
Chicago’s biggest question is Gausman’s shoulder. Bregman is back after the facial injury, and Swanson returned from a left oblique injury on September 18. The Cubs remain without several pitchers who have been out for longer stretches, including Justin Steele and Cade Horton.
San Diego is without Jeremiah Estrada because of a shoulder issue, which removes an important relief arm. Casey Mize, Lucas Giolito, and Joe Musgrove are also unavailable. The positive news for the Padres is that their core position players are largely healthy, while Adam has returned to the bullpen.
Chicago was the stronger team by season-long run production and dominated the season series, so this is not a spot where San Diego should be priced like a major favorite. Game 1, however, gives the Padres several small advantages that add up: King is confirmed as their Game 1 starter, Petco Park gave the Padres a major home-field edge all year, the San Diego offense finished the regular season in excellent form, and the Padres can shorten the game with Morejon and Miller.
At 54¢ on Polymarket, San Diego is still a buy for me. My number is 58.5%, with 56¢ as the highest price I would play. The Cubs have enough offense and defense to make this close, but San Diego has the superior pitching setup and should take advantage of that to win Game 1 at home.
