Updated September 29, 2026
Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal travel to Denmark on Thursday looking to cement their place at the top of Nations League Group D. The reigning champions have won both of their opening matches, but their 2-1 victory in Norway was far from convincing.
Norway outshot them 22-12 and won the expected goals (xG) battle 2.52 to 1.04. Denmark lost 3-2 in Oslo on Matchday 1, but only conceded 1.41 xG to Haaland and co.
We’re trading Denmark to win in regulation at 28¢. Brian Riemer’s side have the home advantage, while Portugal’s defensive display in Oslo gives Denmark a route to chances that the market price may underestimate. This is a speculative home-win pick, with an ATS projection of 34%, six percentage points above the listed price.
Why we're backing the underdog
“Portugal’s two wins have earned them favoritism, but Norway created 2.52 xG and missed 5 big chances against them, and would have dispatched the Portuguese on another day. Denmark can test that defense at Parken, where they just held Wales to 0.62 xG, while their own defense held up much better than their Portuguese counterparts in Oslo.”
Denmark at 28¢
The listed price implies a 28% home-win probability. Our 34% projection gives Denmark a six percentage point edge at that entry, supported by their stout defensive work against Norway and Wales.
Portugal at 47¢
Portugal’s two wins and deeper squad make them deserved favorites. Their 1.04 xG and 38% possession against Norway leave room to question how securely they control this matchup away from home.
Over 2.5 goals at 58¢
Both teams’ Norway games featured three or more goals, but this is defined more by the open, attacking style of the Norwegians. Both sides actually produced just over 1xG in Oslo, implying that their goalscoring exploits in Norway were overblown.
Recommended Position
Denmark to win
Market Price
28¢
Model Probability:
34%
Market Probability
28%
Model Edge:
6%
Entry Threshold:
30¢
Predicted Score:
Denmark 2-1 Portugal
The 3-2 defeat to Norway looked chaotic on the scoreboard, but Denmark’s underlying deficit was smaller: Norway led the xG count 1.41 to 1.09, with both teams taking 13 shots. Denmark then controlled Wales at Parken, taking 20 shots, entering the opposition box 47 times and holding the visitors to 0.62 xG.
However, Portugal will present a much tougher test than Wales. Morten Hjulmand and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg need to compete for second balls and find Mikkel Damsgaard between the lines, while Isaksen provides a direct threat from wide areas. Patrick Dorgu left the Wales game early and his availability is a concern. That could reduce Denmark’s pace on the other flank, so the pick depends on the team producing sustained pressure rather than a single counterattack.
Jorge Jesus began with a 1-0 win over Wales in which Portugal generated 1.93 xG from 23 shots and allowed 0.85. That was a credible opening performance. Norway was a different story altogether. Portugal won 2-1 despite conceding 22 shots, 36 opposition box touches and 2.52 xG. Gonçalo Ramos’s winner followed a goalkeeper error, which makes the result an especially poor substitute for judging Portugal's performance.
Portugal still have match winners throughout the side, including João Félix, Bernardo Silva and Ronaldo. Bruno Fernandes missed the Norway match with an injury and remains a fitness question for Thursday. His possible return would strengthen Portugal’s attacking control; without him, Denmark have a better chance of disrupting the visitors’ buildup and forcing play into wide areas.
Portugal deserve their favorite status on squad quality and their perfect start in Group D. Denmark’s Parken performance and Norway’s ability to create 2.52 xG against Portugal make the hosts more competitive than a 28¢ price suggests. We project a 34% chance of a Denmark win and recommend the home side at 28¢, with 30¢ as the maximum entry. Portugal’s attacking quality and Dorgu’s status are the principal risks; confirmed lineups should be checked before taking the position.