Denmark vs Portugal Match Preview
Denmark’s Home Response After Oslo
The 3-2 defeat to Norway looked chaotic on the scoreboard, but Denmark’s underlying deficit was smaller: Norway led the xG count 1.41 to 1.09, with both teams taking 13 shots. Denmark then controlled Wales at Parken, taking 20 shots, entering the opposition box 47 times and holding the visitors to 0.62 xG.
However, Portugal will present a much tougher test than Wales. Morten Hjulmand and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg need to compete for second balls and find Mikkel Damsgaard between the lines, while Isaksen provides a direct threat from wide areas. Patrick Dorgu left the Wales game early and his availability is a concern. That could reduce Denmark’s pace on the other flank, so the pick depends on the team producing sustained pressure rather than a single counterattack.
Portugal’s Wins Mask a Vulnerable Away Display
Jorge Jesus began with a 1-0 win over Wales in which Portugal generated 1.93 xG from 23 shots and allowed 0.85. That was a credible opening performance. Norway was a different story altogether. Portugal won 2-1 despite conceding 22 shots, 36 opposition box touches and 2.52 xG. Gonçalo Ramos’s winner followed a goalkeeper error, which makes the result an especially poor substitute for judging Portugal's performance.
Portugal still have match winners throughout the side, including João Félix, Bernardo Silva and Ronaldo. Bruno Fernandes missed the Norway match with an injury and remains a fitness question for Thursday. His possible return would strengthen Portugal’s attacking control; without him, Denmark have a better chance of disrupting the visitors’ buildup and forcing play into wide areas.
ATS Prediction: Denmark 2-1 Portugal
Portugal deserve their favorite status on squad quality and their perfect start in Group D. Denmark’s Parken performance and Norway’s ability to create 2.52 xG against Portugal make the hosts more competitive than a 28¢ price suggests. We project a 34% chance of a Denmark win and recommend the home side at 28¢, with 30¢ as the maximum entry. Portugal’s attacking quality and Dorgu’s status are the principal risks; confirmed lineups should be checked before taking the position.