Red Sox vs Yankees Series Preview & Prediction: Who Will Advance to the ALDS?
Updated September 28, 2026
Updated September 28, 2026
The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will renew their rivalry with a trip to the ALDS on the line in a three-game Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium beginning Tuesday night. New York finished 93-68 with a +138 run differential and earned the No. 4 seed, while Boston closed 87-75 with a +78 differential as the No. 5 seed. New York won the season series 7-6, and another closely contested series is expected because of how tight the regular-season series was.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“New York’s home-field advantage, superior full-season run differential and Cam Schlittler’s dominant season are all legitimate reasons for the Yankees to command respect in the market. My number gives more weight to current player availability, Boston’s relief pitching, and their offensive performance since June 25. With Judge unlikely to be at full strength even if he makes the roster, the Yankees are being overpriced given the injury situation surrounding their to power bats.”
Price vs Projection
Polymarket’s current “Team to advance to ALDS” market lists New York at 60% and Boston at 40%. The market has very little liquidity, however, which is worth noting as the price can change once more money is in the market. But our projections make the series a lot closer to a coin flip, making the Red Sox a value play.
Where the Value Lies
My projection lands at 45% for Boston, creating a 5% gap from the displayed market probability. The value exists at 43¢ or lower, where there is still a meaningful cushion between price and projection. Boston’s case rests on more than Judge’s injury. From June 25 through the end of the regular season, the Red Sox ranked 8th in wOBA and 11th in wRC+, producing offense 4% above league average after park and scoring-environment adjustments. New York ranked 28th in both wOBA and wRC+ over the same period and was 12% below league average.
Recommended Position:
Red Sox to Advance
Current Price:
40¢
Model Probability:
45%
Market Probability:
40%
Model Edge:
5%
Entry Threshold:
43¢
Model Confidence:
73/100
Judge’s right soleus strain is the largest variable entering the series. Manager Aaron Boone said New York was planning as though Judge would not be part of the Wild Card roster. Judge has said he intends to return, but the latest update noted that he had not resumed running or hitting after receiving a platelet-poor plasma injection. That leaves New York facing the possibility of opening October without its most dangerous hitter, which could make MLB predictions on the Yankees tenuous for now.
The Yankees still have power. Ben Rice cleared 40 home runs, Cody Bellinger has remained productive, and Heliot Ramos, Spencer Jones and Jazz Chisholm Jr. give the lineup enough damage potential to punish mistakes. New York hit 223 home runs during the regular season, compared with 164 for Boston. Yet there is an important counterpoint: in 13 games against the Red Sox, the Yankees hit 15 home runs and produced a .232/.290/.370 slash line. Boston also allowed only 155 home runs, the fewest in MLB.
Contreras returned as the designated hitter in Boston’s regular-season finale after injuring his right hand on September 17. He finished with 27 home runs in 129 games, giving Boston an important middle-of-the-order threat. Roman Anthony also closed well, batting .357/.400/.679 over 7 games leading into the finale. Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Adley Rutschman, Jarren Duran and Trevor Story give the Red Sox several ways to generate offense without relying on one bat.
Boston’s defense also matters in a series that could feature low-scoring games. Rafaela posted +21 Defensive Runs Saved and Abreu +27, while Bellinger recorded +21 for New York. Limiting extra bases in the Yankee Stadium gaps could become especially valuable if both clubs lean heavily on their relief groups.
Boston had not formally announced whether Gray or Tolle would start Game 1 as of the latest official update. Gray finished 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA and 20 quality starts. Tolle went 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA and brings upper-90s velocity from the left side. If the series reaches Game 3, Suárez is the likely choice. He owns a 1.48 ERA in 11 career postseason appearances, including 8 starts.
New York’s order is set. Schlittler gets Game 1 after a 14-6 season with a 1.95 ERA, Fried follows in Game 2 after posting a 2.80 ERA, and Cole is lined up for Game 3 if needed. Schlittler has the strongest recent starter numbers in the series. Over his final 75 innings, he recorded a 1.80 ERA, 102 strikeouts, 24 walks, and only 4 home runs allowed while opponents hit .161/.239/.253. Fried’s recent workload is lighter after multiple absences, while Cole posted a 4.98 ERA, 5.05 xERA and 5.61 FIP over his final 6 starts.
That creates a clear opening for Boston. The Red Sox do not need to beat Schlittler decisively; they just need Gray or Tolle to keep Game 1 close long enough to turn it into a relief battle. If they can do that, their chances improve substantially.
Boston finished 1st in MLB in reliever ERA at 2.99, while New York ranked 2nd at 3.15. The Red Sox also finished with the lowest relief FIP, giving them a genuine late-inning advantage rather than one built only on ERA. Aroldis Chapman remains Boston’s closer, Garrett Whitlock handles major setup situations, and Brayan Bello can provide multiple innings if a starter exits early.
The Red Sox are not fully healthy in the bullpen. Tyron Guerrero went on the injured list with a right shoulder strain, and Garrett Crochet remains uncertain after not pitching since April 25. New York has its own strong closer in David Bednar, who finished with 35 saves and a 2.50 ERA in 63 appearances. The difference is that Boston’s relief group has been slightly better over the full season, and New York’s bullpen FIP rose into the 4.70s in September.
New York’s 93-68 record, 739 runs scored and +138 run differential are better than Boston’s 87-75 record, 689 runs and +78 differential. The Yankees also went 7-6 against Boston. Those numbers explain why New York is the market favorite. Boston’s road record, however, was 46-35, so playing the entire series in the Bronx is less damaging than it might appear at first glance.
The timing of Boston’s turnaround is also relevant. The Red Sox were 32-46 on June 25, swept New York in a 4-game series, then went 55-29 from that point through the end of the regular season. That extended run is large enough to treat as more than a brief hot streak. It also lines up with the advanced offensive data showing Boston clearly ahead of New York in wOBA and wRC+ over the same span.
New York has the stronger full-season record, home field, and the top Game 1 starter. Boston has the healthier core lineup, the slightly better bullpen, stronger offensive indicators over the final 84 games, and a pitching staff built to limit home runs. Judge’s injury is the deciding adjustment for me. If he is unavailable, or returns without full lower-body strength, New York loses the hitter most capable of changing a low-scoring playoff game with one swing.
My projection makes Boston a better value to reach the ALDS, compared with Polymarket’s current 40% displayed probability. The gap is large enough to make the Red Sox my preferred side, but price discipline matters. I would enter only at 43¢ or lower. At that number, my pick is Boston to qualify for the ALDS, with the series most likely needing all 3 games.
