Braves vs Cubs Prediction & Preview: Pérez, Gausman Meet at Wrigley
Updated September 15, 2026
Updated September 15, 2026
The Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs continue their three-game series on Tuesday, September 15, with first pitch set for 7:40 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. Martín Pérez (8-9, 3.08 ERA) gets the start for Atlanta, while Kevin Gausman (9-12, 4.60 ERA) takes the mound for Chicago.
The Cubs took the opener 7-3 on Monday night, improving to 84-67 while dropping the Braves to 88-63. Now, Chicago has a chance to make it two straight at home and lock up the series before Wednesday’s finale.
In this Braves vs Cubs prediction, we’ll break down the biggest storylines for Game 2 and explain why we like Chicago to win again on Tuesday night.
ATS Expert Verdict:
“I like the Cubs to get another win on Tuesday. Atlanta is in a pretty comfortable spot in the playoff race and may be more focused on getting to October healthy. Meanwhile, Gausman should be motivated to bounce back after a rough start against Milwaukee, and Chicago has been one of baseball’s best teams against lefties this year. I think they’ll be able to get to Pérez tonight.”
Polymarket Pricing
The Cubs are currently trading at 57¢ to win on Polymarket, while our model gives them a 63% chance of winning. That gives us about a 6% edge at the current price, and our model has Chicago coming out on top 5-3 tonight.
The Cubs Dominate Lefties
Chicago has been the best team in baseball against lefties this season, and it really hasn’t been that close. The Cubs lead MLB with a 124 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, well ahead of the Rangers in second at 116. That’s a tough matchup for Pérez tonight.
The Pitching Splits Favor Chicago
Pérez has been a completely different pitcher away from home, with a 4.76 road ERA compared to just 1.80 at home. Gausman, meanwhile, has been much better at Wrigley, posting a 3.91 ERA at home compared to 5.40 on the road.
Recommended Prediction:
Cubs to Win
Current Market Price:
57¢
Model Win Probability:
63%
Market-Implied Probability:
57%
Model Edge:
6%
Buy Up To:
62¢
Model Trade Confidence:
74/100
If you just look at the season numbers, Pérez appears to have the edge. He enters Tuesday with an 8-9 record, 3.08 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 2.8 WAR, while Gausman is 9-12 with a 4.60 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 0.9 WAR.
Gausman hasn’t exactly turned things around since coming over from Toronto, either, posting a 5.31 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with Chicago. However, the Cubs are 3-0 in his home starts, and his last outing at Wrigley was one of his best. He held Milwaukee to one run on five hits over seven innings while striking out nine and walking just one.
Pérez, meanwhile, has been a completely different pitcher on the road. His ERA jumps from 1.80 at home to 4.76 away, while his WHIP climbs from 1.04 to 1.52 and his HR/9 from 0.48 to 1.43. This isn’t just a one-year trend, either, as his road ERA has been at least 2.50 runs higher than his home ERA in each of the previous three seasons.
So, while Pérez has clearly had the better season overall, the pitching edge might not be as big as it looks heading into Tuesday night at Wrigley.
Perhaps Chicago’s biggest advantage tonight is how well it has hit left-handed pitching. The Cubs lead MLB with a .805 OPS and 124 wRC+ against lefties while ranking second with a 10.6% walk rate.
Alex Bregman is a great example of that success. He’s batting .289 with a .406 OBP and .489 slugging percentage against lefties this season, compared to .254/.335/.435 against righties. He’s also drawn 24 walks compared to just 22 strikeouts in those matchups.
That makes Pérez’s road struggles even more concerning. Chicago has been punishing lefties all season, and now it gets one who has been much more vulnerable away from home.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is also closing in on some history. After homering and stealing a base in Monday’s win over Atlanta, he’s now up to 42 home runs and 37 stolen bases, putting him just three steals away from a 40-40 season. Only six players in MLB history have reached that mark, with Shohei Ohtani the most recent in 2024.
PCA has also all but locked up the NL MVP, with Yes currently trading at 99.1¢ on Polymarket. He’s been even better at Wrigley this year, batting .308 with 25 home runs in 76 games, compared to .256 with 17 homers on the road.
With 11 games left, all he needs are three more stolen bases to join one of the most exclusive clubs in baseball.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5, Atlanta Braves 3
Best Trade: Cubs to Win (Playable up to 62¢)
I expect the Cubs to clinch the series against the NL East-leading Braves on Tuesday night. Chicago has been great at Wrigley this year with a 44-32 record, while Atlanta is barely above .500 on the road at 37-36.
I also think the matchup favors Chicago more than the starting pitchers’ overall numbers might suggest. The Cubs have the right pieces in place to take advantage of Pérez, and they still have plenty to play for as they battle for playoff positioning.
So, my top Braves vs Cubs prediction is Chicago to win, currently trading at 57¢ on Polymarket.
For more game previews and analysis on today’s slate, check out our daily MLB predictions.
