WNBA
Las Vegas enters with the better overall record, better net rating, and a stronger recent stretch, while Phoenix has been more uneven and less efficient on both ends. The Aces are scoring 91.3 points per game and allowing 85.9, backed by a 112.7 offensive rating and a 106.1 defensive rating. Phoenix scores 84.4 and allows 87.3, with a 105.1 offensive rating and a 108.6 defensive rating. The Aces also shoot a better field goal percentage, rebound at a higher rate, and protect the ball slightly better, which gives them the edge in shot quality and possession control.
Las Vegas should be the better team in this spot, but the total is the cleaner angle because the market is asking for a game played in a scoring range that sits a little above what the season-long profiles support. The Aces have the stronger offense and defense, while Phoenix has been less efficient and less reliable game to game. Even so, both teams’ pace numbers suggest a controlled game more than a track meet. My projection is Las Vegas 88, Phoenix 82, with the under cashing in a final total of 170.
