WNBA
Golden State enters with 82.2 points per game, a 48.6 field goal percentage, and 87.5 free throw shooting, while allowing 75.1 points per game. Las Vegas scores 91.5 points per game and shoots 51.2 percent from the floor, but it also allows 85.8 points per game and has been less efficient on the defensive end. Golden State has been cleaner with the ball and more balanced at home, while Las Vegas leans on higher scoring volume and pace. The Aces are on a seven-game winning streak, but the Valkyries have been strong in their own building and have the better defensive numbers overall.
Golden State is the preferred side in a tight game at home, with the Valkyries projected to win 84-81. Their home record, stronger defensive rating, and better scoring margin support a small edge over Las Vegas, even with the Aces carrying the more explosive offense and a hot recent run. The projected margin lines up with a short home cover, and the game script points to Golden State controlling enough of the late possessions to finish ahead.
