WNBA
Golden State enters with a 7-3 run over its last 10 and a 31-12 record, while Los Angeles is 4-6 over its last 10 and 16-27 overall. The Valkyries are more efficient offensively by team metrics, with a 42.3% field goal rate and 108.5 offensive rating, and they pair that with a top-tier defensive rating of 99.1. Los Angeles scores more raw points per game at 87.3, but that has not translated into results because the Sparks give up 91.7 points per game and post a 110.6 defensive rating. Golden State also turns the ball over less and rebounds more effectively on both ends, which helps explain why the gap between these teams is larger than the market may look at first glance.
Golden State should control this game from the defensive end and on the glass, and the numbers point to the Valkyries covering the spread. Los Angeles can score enough to keep the total from collapsing, but the Sparks' defensive profile is the bigger problem, especially against a team that defends efficiently and protects the ball. The projected final score is Golden State Valkyries 85, Los Angeles Sparks 76.
