WNBA
Golden State enters with a stronger season profile overall, led by 82.3 points per game, a 42.3 field goal percentage, and a 99.1 defensive rating. The Valkyries also allow just 75.1 points per game, which has been a key driver of their success. Dallas has a higher-scoring offense at 89.4 points per game and a better 46.6 field goal percentage, but the Wings have not defended as cleanly, allowing 85.3 points per game. Recent form is solid for both teams at 7-3 over the last 10, but Golden State’s superior defensive numbers and home court make it the more reliable side to control game flow.
Golden State should be in position to win a lower-scoring game, but Dallas has enough offensive output to keep the margin from getting out of hand. The best angle is the under, with both teams showing under-leaning season results and Golden State bringing the stronger defense and slower pace into the matchup. My projected final score is Golden State Valkyries 79, Dallas Wings 76, which supports an under result and a competitive contest without needing a blowout.
