MLB
Casey Mize gets the ball for San Diego. He is listed at 6-9 with a 3.96 ERA, and the Padres have been a better team at home than on the road, which supports his spot here. The matchup also leans on San Diego’s bullpen strength if Mize works into the middle innings without damage.
San Diego has the more trustworthy pitching base, the better bullpen, and the stronger home record, so the Padres are the side that fits best. Arizona can keep this close behind Brandon Pfaadt, but the Padres’ edge in late innings should be enough to separate. My projected score is San Diego Padres 4, Arizona Diamondbacks 3.
Brandon Pfaadt starts for Arizona. He is listed at 7-3 with a 3.72 ERA, and he has been effective enough to keep the Diamondbacks competitive in many of his starts. Even so, Arizona’s overall pitching numbers are less secure than San Diego’s, and that lowers the margin for error against a home team that has handled its own park well.
