COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Florida State over 24.5 team points offers a cleaner way to back the Seminoles’ offense than taking a side in a game where SMU enters favored by roughly a field goal. Daniels completed 17 of 27 passes for 202 yards with one touchdown and one interception against New Mexico State, while adding 30 rushing yards and another score. Ousmane Kromah supplied 115 rushing yards on 14 carries, an average of 8.2 per attempt, and Samuel Singleton Jr. produced 96 yards from scrimmage with two touchdowns while also contributing in the return game. Florida State reached 34 points even though New Mexico State converted 10 of 17 third downs and kept the Seminoles from controlling the game as comfortably as expected. If Florida State converts a few more drives cleanly while getting similar production from Kromah and Singleton, clearing 24.5 is realistic. SMU’s 2025 defense allowed nearly 400 yards per game, which supports the idea that Florida State should have enough possession-level opportunities to reach four or more scoring drives.
Florida State enters 1-0 after beating New Mexico State 34-17. The Seminoles generated 419 yards, including 217 rushing, with Kromah leading the ground game at 115 yards and one touchdown. Daniels finished with 232 total yards, two touchdowns and one interception, while Singleton emerged as another major piece with 54 receiving yards, 42 rushing yards and two offensive touchdowns. Florida State’s concern was its pass defense, as New Mexico State quarterback Trey Hedden threw for 272 yards and two scores while the Aggies repeatedly extended drives on third down. SMU has yet to play in 2026, so its most recent result remains a 24-19 Holiday Bowl victory over Arizona in January. Jennings completed 21 of 32 passes for 278 yards in that win but threw three interceptions after halftime. Across the full 2025 season, he completed 66.1% of his passes for 3,641 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. SMU averaged 32.2 points and 417.0 yards per game last season, making this a significant step up in offensive quality for a Florida State defense that showed coverage problems in its opener.
Florida State Seminoles are 0-1-0 against the spread and 0-1-0 to the under.
Florida State’s 34-point opener provides enough evidence to support another productive offensive night, particularly with the Seminoles showing four credible sources of yardage in Daniels, Kromah, Singleton and Quintrevion Wisner. SMU presents a much stronger offensive test than New Mexico State, led by Jennings after his 3,641-yard, 26-touchdown season, which should keep pressure on Florida State to continue attacking for points. The concern for SMU is that last season’s defense surrendered 395.1 yards per game, a figure that gives Florida State room to create scoring chances even if its passing execution remains inconsistent. With the Seminoles’ team total sitting around 24.5, the number is low enough that Florida State can cash the recommended over without having to dominate the game. The projection calls for Florida State to score four touchdowns plus a field goal, producing a 31-24 Seminoles victory and a projected total of 55 points.
