COLLEGE BASKETBALL
San Diego State has opened 3-0 and has done so with high-end offensive efficiency, strong shooting, and solid defense. The Aztecs are scoring 89.0 points per game while allowing 73.0, and the efficiency numbers point to a team that is finishing possessions on both ends at a higher level than its opponent. Their 54.5 field goal percentage and 43.1 three-point percentage stand out as the sharpest shooting marks in this matchup. New Mexico State is 1-2 and has been inconsistent on both ends. The Aggies are scoring 66.3 points per game and allowing 78.3, which is a difficult profile against a home favorite that can score efficiently from multiple areas. Their rebounding number is also lower, which makes it harder to keep pace if San Diego State controls the glass. On the efficiency side, New Mexico State's offensive and defensive metrics lag behind the Aztecs, making an upset less likely unless San Diego State cools off sharply from the field.
San Diego State should control this game with its better shooting, stronger defensive numbers, and rebound edge, while New Mexico State will need an unusually efficient offensive night to stay close. The projected final score is San Diego State 82, New Mexico State 67, which supports a clear home win and a comfortable margin for the Aztecs.
