COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Northwestern enters with a 3-1 record, a 109.5 offensive rating, and a 102.4 defensive rating. The Wildcats have been steadier on the defensive end, allowing 61.8 points per game, but their offense has averaged only 70.8 points per game with 44.3 shooting from the field. That combination points to a team that can control games, but not one that consistently creates enough scoring cushion to erase upset risk. Columbia is also 3-1 and has been the better pure scoring team so far, posting 85.8 points per game on 48.6 shooting from the field and 72.0 at the line. The Lions also rebound well at 43.0 per game, which gives them a path to extra possessions against a Northwestern group that averages 31.5 rebounds. Columbia’s weaker defensive rating makes this a dangerous matchup, but its offense is the reason the underdog position remains live.
Columbia has enough offensive production and rebounding to keep this game within reach, and the split market pricing points to a potential misread on Northwestern’s true win probability. Northwestern’s defense should keep the score controlled, but the Wildcats’ modest scoring output makes it hard to justify a very heavy favorite position. The projection is Columbia Lions 71, Northwestern Wildcats 68, with Columbia winning outright and the game staying in a lower-scoring range.
