Calgary Stampeders vs Ottawa Redblacks Prediction - September 26, 2026

Introduction

Calgary and Ottawa meet again with the Stampeders coming in off a narrow road win and the Redblacks still searching for their first victory. Ottawa has been much better at keeping games close than winning them, while Calgary has shown the stronger scoring profile and a more reliable late-game finish. The market is giving Calgary the edge, and that fits the broader season numbers, but Ottawa’s home setting and Calgary’s recent habit of playing higher-scoring games keep this from being a runaway handicap.

Prediction

• ●Recommended Bet: Calgary Stampeders moneyline
• ●Model Win Probability: 60.0%
• ●Implied Probability Of Bet: 56.14%
• ●Model Edge: 3.86%
• ●Odds Playable To: -150
• ●Confidence to Place Bet Based on Model Edge: 65/100

Model Projection

• ●Projected Score: Calgary Stampeders 31, Ottawa Redblacks 27
• ●Projected Total: 58

Why This Bet Stands Out

Calgary owns the clear statistical edge in scoring, with far more points for and a positive point differential, while Ottawa has struggled badly to finish drives and protect leads. The Redblacks are still winless, and even though they have covered some games, their offense has not produced enough consistency to justify backing them on the moneyline. Calgary’s recent result in this matchup also matters because the Stampeders just beat Ottawa in a tight finish, and their attack has been better at creating enough scoring to survive close games. This is a better moneyline angle than a side or total because Calgary’s path to victory is easier to project than the exact game script. Ottawa’s defense has allowed the same number of points Calgary has surrendered, but the difference is on offense, where Calgary has scored far more. That gap, plus Calgary’s stronger overall record and better road profile, gives the visitors a modest but real win-probability edge over the market price.