The USC Trojans head into Autzen Stadium on Saturday to take on the Oregon Ducks in a marquee Big Ten matchup. This game is more or less an elimination game in the College Football playoff race, as a loss this late in the season would make it hard for the team that drops this one to move back up to get an at-large spot. Here, I break down this big game in the Big Ten and give you my USC vs Oregon prediction for this contest.
Our USC vs Oregon Pick
Pick: USC +10.5
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: USC Trojans at Oregon Ducks
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 22, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- Playoff Implications: Oregon is 9–1 and is pushing for a College Football Playoff berth. USC is sitting at 8–2 and is desperate to prove it belongs in playoff consideration as well. Both teams have everything on the line going into this game and we should see a ton of intensity with that in mind.
- Offense vs. Defense: USC features one of the most explosive scoring offenses in college football. Oregon relies on one of the stingiest defenses in the country. But only one of those styles will win out when these teams do battle on Saturday.
- Tempo and Game Flow: Oregon’s run game could set a physical tone that wouldwear down the USC defense as this game progresses. But USC can score in a hurry to make up for any damage that the Oregon offense can do to them.
- Quarterback Battle: Jayden Maiava’s efficiency for USC and Dante Moore’s poise and playmaking for Oregon will make both offenses must-watch in this game.
- Rivalry Game: Both of these teams were rivals in the Pac-12 before they left that league to play in the Big Ten. This is also one of the few times where USC can play a Big Ten road game without having to travel way to the east. It will be interesting to see how those dynamics come into play in this game.
Quarterback Play
USC: Jayden Maiava has thrown for 2,868 yards with 18 touchdowns and 6 interceptions this season. He completes nearly 67% of his passes and he also brings some mobility when needed. Maiava is the latest quarterback to have success under Lincoln Riley and he will try to lead his team to an upset win in this contest.
Oregon: Dante Moore has put together a very efficient season for Oregon. He has thrown for 2,190 yards with 21 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He is completing more than 72% of his passes going into this matchup. In Oregon’s last game, Moore completed 27 of 30 throws for 306 yards and 2 scores.
Betting Trends
- Oregon is 6-4 against the spread going into this contest.
- USC is 5-5 against the spread entering this matchup from Eugene.
- Both of these teams are 5-5 in the over/under market heading into this game.
USC vs Oregon Model Projection
Score Projection: Oregon 35 – USC 28
Win Probability: Oregon 72%, USC 28%
Final Thoughts
Oregon should be able to win this game at home to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive while ending the hopes of the Trojans. But I am taking the points with USC in this matchup. The Trojans have an explosive enough offense to hang with Oregon for the most part and Maiava should be able to move the ball effectively enough through the air to keep this contest within single digits.
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