Northern Illinois vs UMass Pick & Prediction - 11/12/2025
Updated November 12, 2025
Updated November 12, 2025
The Northern Illinois Huskies (2‑7, 1‑4 MAC) are in Amherst to take on the UMass Minutemen (0‑9, 0‑5 MAC) as a part of Wednesday night's MACtion. Northern Illinois enters this game as a heavy favorite, which is more of an indictment of UMass than anything positive about the Huskies. Either way, someone has to win this contest and you can find my Northern Illinois vs UMass prediction below.
The Huskies have stumbled all season and enter this game with just one MAC win. Their offense ranks near the bottom of FBS in points per game and total yardage. Northern Illinois was crushed 42‑3 by the Toledo Rockets in their last game. Their passing game has been particularly weak and the Huskies will try to get things going through the air against a UMass team that is also one of the worst in FBS football this year.
UMass is winless and the Minutemen’s offensive output is among the worst in the nation. They are averaging 11.3 points per game going into Wednesday night. Their defense has also been helpless for the bulk of this season and they have given up 41 points per game over their last two outings. Still, this might be the best chance left this season for UMass to get a win and we should see a desperate team as a result.
Northern Illinois' Josh Holst (689 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs) has struggled to lead a consistent passing attack. The Huskies have essentially been forced into a run‑first mindset because their aerial attack is so ineffective. UMass quarterback AJ Hairston has thrown 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, with 866 yards passing on the season. Neither team is known for moving the ball through the air and we could see both offenses struggle to do so again here.
Score Projection: Northern Illinois 23 – UMass 14
Win Probability: Northern Illinois 76%, UMass 24%
I fully understand that it is hard to justify putting your money behind either of these teams based on what we've seen from them so far this season. But I do think that the UMass Minutemen have a decent shot at covering the spread as a home underdog here. The Minutemen are terrible this year, but they should be able to stay relatively close in this contest against one of the few FBS football teams that is even close to as bad on offense as UMass is.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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