The 2025 college football bowl season continues with a matchup between the New Mexico Lobos and Minnesota Golden Gophers in the Rate Bowl on Friday afternoon. New Mexico comes into this bowl matchup from Chase Field in Phoenix on an impressive winning streak. But a Big Ten opponent will try to put an end to that streak and end their season on a high note. Before kickoff from Phoenix, you can find my New Mexico vs Minnesota prediction below.
Our New Mexico vs Minnesota Pick
| Pick: | |
| Confidence: | 4/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New Mexico Lobos vs Minnesota Golden Gophers
- Date & Time: Friday, December 26, 2025, 4:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
For New Mexico, this Rate Bowl appearance marks a major milestone. This is their first bowl berth since 2016. The Lobos finished the regular season 9–3 and won their final six contests, thanks to strong balance on both sides of the ball and a mounting confidence that many bettors view as a reason to back them as underdogs in this contest.
The Lobos offense averaged nearly 370 yards per game, with respectable figures in both passing and rushing attacks. Defensively, New Mexico held opponents to just over 350 yards per outing and was particularly tough against the run, where they ranked among the more effective units nationally.
Minnesota enters with a 7–5 record after closing its season with a victory over rival Wisconsin. The Golden Gophers’ appeal comes not from gaudy offensive statistics, but from a defense capable of creating turnovers and a head coach with a perfect bowl record, with PJ Fleck entering this game a perfect 6-0 in bowl games with the Golden Gophers.
Minnesota’s defense posted solid numbers in stopping the run and generating pressure, leading to a turnover margin that sits well above New Mexico’s. Offensively, the Gophers ranked in the lower tiers nationally, but their physicality up front could help them against a Mountain West opponent.
Quarterback Play
New Mexico’s offense is led by quarterback Jack Layne, who completed nearly two-thirds of his passes this season for more than 2,300 yards and 13 touchdowns. But he also threw 9 interceptions and Layne needs to be careful with the ball to help his team get a win here. Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey also topped 2,200 passing yards with a similar touchdown-to-interception ratio, but the Gophers lean more on balanced production and running the football.
Betting Trends & H2H
- There is no previous head-to-head history between New Mexico and Minnesota.
- Minnesota is 4-7-1 against the spread this season.
- New Mexico is 7-5 against the spread for the year.
- The under has hit in 7 of New Mexico’s 12 games.
- Minnesota went 6-5-1 in their totals this year, favoring the over slightly.
New Mexico vs Minnesota Model Projection
Final Thoughts
