Updated September 15, 2026
No. 5 Miami heads to Winston-Salem on Friday night for an ACC matchup with Wake Forest. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Both teams enter at 2-0, with the Hurricanes also 1-0 in ACC play after beating Stanford in their season opener.
Wake Forest is coming off a thrilling 38-36 double-overtime win at Purdue on Saturday, while Miami had a much easier time in a 77-7 blowout of Florida A&M last Thursday.
In this Miami vs Wake Forest prediction, we’ll preview Friday night’s matchup and explain why we like Wake Forest’s team total Under 17.5 points.
ATS Expert Verdict:
“I like Wake Forest Under 17.5 points on Friday night. There’s no way I’m stepping in front of this Miami team after the way it has dominated its first two opponents. The offense gets most of the attention, but the defense has been just as impressive. Miami has allowed just 13 points so far, and seven came on a Florida A&M fumble return in garbage time. Going from Purdue to Miami on a short week should be a shock to the system for the Demon Deacons.”
Polymarket Pricing
Wake Forest Under 17.5 is currently trading at 58¢ on Polymarket, while our model gives the Under a 72% chance of hitting. That gives us a 14% edge at the current price, with the model projecting Miami to win 38-14.
Wake Forest Steps Up in Competition
Wake Forest has scored 38 points in back-to-back games to start the year, but Miami is easily its toughest matchup yet. The Hurricanes ranked fifth nationally in scoring defense last season and return many key players, including second-team All-ACC defensive tackle Ahmad Moten.
Miami Should Control the Line of Scrimmage
Miami has allowed just 115 rushing yards through two games, and I think the Hurricanes have a clear advantage up front. If they can take away the run and force Wake Forest into obvious passing situations, it should be much easier to pressure Gio Lopez and get the Demon Deacons off the field.
Recommended Prediction:
Wake Forest Under 17.5
Current Market Price:
58¢
Model Win Probability:
72%
Market-Implied Probability:
58%
Model Edge:
14%
Buy Up To:
71¢
Model Trade Confidence:
84/100
Miami couldn’t have asked for a much better start to 2026. The Hurricanes are 2-0 and have outscored their first two opponents 122-13, with Duke transfer Darian Mensah leading the way.
Mensah has completed 41 of 45 passes for 653 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s also jumped to the front of the Heisman race, currently trading around 23% on Polymarket.
He has plenty of help around him, too. Sophomore receiver Malachi Toney already has 16 catches for 330 yards and four touchdowns, while senior running back Mark Fletcher Jr. is averaging 7.3 yards per carry with 145 yards and two scores.
Miami will look to keep that offense rolling against a Wake Forest defense that gave up 455 yards and 36 points at Purdue last week. Granted, that game went to double overtime, but it’s still not a great sign heading into a matchup with one of the hottest offenses in the country.
Gio Lopez has looked much better since transferring from North Carolina to Wake Forest. Through two games, he’s completed 62.7% of his passes for 575 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions, while adding 97 yards and two more scores on the ground.
It’s an encouraging start after Lopez struggled to find much consistency at North Carolina last season, finishing with 1,747 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. Still, Friday night will be by far his toughest test since arriving at Wake Forest.
Miami has yet to allow an offensive touchdown this season, holding Stanford and Florida A&M to 406 combined yards and just 3.6 yards per play. The Hurricanes have been especially strong against the run, allowing only 2.6 yards per carry, which could put even more pressure on Lopez to make plays through the air.
The competition hasn’t been great, but Miami has done exactly what you’d expect against it. Going from Akron and Purdue to this Hurricanes defense should give us a much better idea of just how good Lopez and the Wake Forest offense really are.
The answer is... probably not. We did see some Friday night chaos in the ACC last season, including unranked Louisville going on the road and beating No. 2 Miami 24-21 and unranked Virginia knocking off No. 8 Florida State 46-38 in double overtime. Miami also survived a Friday night scare against Virginia Tech in 2024, winning 38-34 after the Hokies’ apparent game-winning Hail Mary was overturned.
So, Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes are no strangers to strange Friday night games. Still, this Miami team looks like one of the most talented teams in the country on both sides of the ball, and if the Hurricanes show up focused, they’re capable of beating anyone.
I’m not stepping in front of them here. Cristobal should be well aware of Miami’s recent Friday night struggles, and I expect the Hurricanes to come out focused, especially on defense. That’s why I like Wake Forest to finish below its team total in a comfortable Miami win.
Prediction: Miami 38, Wake Forest 14
Best Trade: Wake Forest Team Total Under 17.5
Follow along for more college football predictions in Week 3 and beyond.
