Air Force and UNLV are set to play on Saturday afternoon in Las Vegas. The Rebels are 5-0 to start the year and will try to stay undefeated here against a 1-4 Air Force team. Before these Mountain West teams face one another, continue reading to get my Air Force vs UNLV prediction.
Our Air Force vs UNLV Pick
- Pick: UNLV -7
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Air Force Falcons vs UNLV Rebels
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 3:30 PM EDT
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
- Broadcast: CBSSN
Air Force vs UNLV Odds
Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
UNLV | -7 | -250 | Over 65.5 |
Air Force | +7 | +210 | Under 65.5 |
Key Storylines
- UNLV's Undefeated Streak: The Rebels are off to their best start since 1974, thanks to a potent offense and a defense that is very good at creating turnovers.
- Air Force's Offensive Dual Threat: Quarterback Liam Szarka has been exceptional, becoming the first player in Mountain West history to post three consecutive games with 200 passing yards and 100 rushing yards.
- Defensive Challenges: Air Force's defense has struggled, allowing over 40 points and 470 total yards per game. They are not likely to improve in either area against a UNLV offense that has scored at least 30 points in all five of their games this year.
Quarterback Play
- Liam Szarka (Air Force): With 850 passing yards and seven touchdowns, Szarka has been a dual-threat quarterback. He has 448 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns this year. That includes 152 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the Falcons' recent loss against Navy.
- Anthony Colandrea (UNLV): Colandrea has thrown for over 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns, leading an offense that averages 35.6 points per game. Colandrea has looked impressive against UCLA and a good Miami (OH) defense. He will try to lead his team to another 30-point game here.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Air Force: Air Force is 2-3 against the spread so far this season. All five of their games have gone over their totals this year.
- UNLV: UNLV is 4-1 against the spread in their first five games. They have had three of their first five games stay under their totals.
- Head-to-Head: Air Force holds a 5-2 lead in their all-time series against UNLV. The Rebels won the last meeting between these teams by a score of 31-27 in 2023.
Air Force vs UNLV Model Projection
Score Projection: UNLV 38 – Air Force 30
Win Probability: UNLV 70%, Air Force 30%
Final Thoughts
I have been very impressed with the way that UNLV has moved the football on offense. They have not played up or down to their level of competition this year. Instead, they have just been remarkably consistent on offense. I expect that to continue here and for the Rebels to cover the spread as a home favorite on Saturday afternoon.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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