Updated January 16, 2026
The Virginia Cavaliers and the SMU Mustangs will collide on Saturday in an important contest in the ACC. Both teams have shown they can score in bunches and make timely plays, but only one of them can get through Saturday's action with a win. Virginia enters on the heels of a quality win over a ranked opponent, while SMU is energized after a thrilling buzzer-beater victory on its home floor. Before tip-off from Dallas, keep reading for my Virginia vs SMU prediction in college hoops.
Pick: | SMU ML ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 2/5 |
Virginia arrives at Moody Coliseum ranked nationally and riding a four-game winning streak, most recently beating Louisville 79-70. The Cavaliers shot well from three and have a balanced scoring attack, led by Thijs de Ridder and his 16 points per game. Their defense continues to hold opponents below their average in most games, and Virginia’s disciplined play has translated into positive results both straight up and against the spread.
SMU has had its share of excitement, most recently with a dramatic 77-76 win over Virginia Tech that was sealed by a half-court buzzer-beater. Guard Boopie Miller has been a spark for the Mustangs, combining scoring and playmaking ability to get himself and others involved, and SMU boasts an above-average scoring offense in college hoops. Defensive shortcomings, particularly in transition and closeouts, have led to inconsistent results but this team has a high ceiling when they put it all together.
Virginia enters this game with a 4-1 record in ACC play, putting them a game in the loss column behind Duke, Clemson, and Miami so far this year. SMU comes into this game with a 2-2 conference record and they will try to get an important win for their resume at home in this matchup.
Score Projection: Virginia 77 – SMU 79 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Virginia 48%, SMU 52% ATS PRO
This game is close to a pick 'em, as both teams have a perfectly good shot at coming away with the win in Dallas. I'm leaning ever so slightly toward SMU to win the game as a moneyline underdog. The Mustangs are a perfect 11-0 at home to this point in the year. And while this might be the toughest test SMU has faced at home this season, I think they pass that test at the expense of a very good Virginia team.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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