Updated January 13, 2026
The Virginia Cavaliers (14-2, 3-1 ACC) travel to take on the Louisville Cardinals (12-4, 2-2 ACC) on Tuesday night in a top-25 matchup that could have major implications for both teams’ positioning in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Virginia enters this contest off a solid win over Stanford, while Louisville looks to build on its strong home record at the KFC Yum! Center. Here, you will find all of the insights you need to make an informed decision in the betting markets, and you can find my Virginia vs Louisville prediction as well.
Pick: | Virginia +3.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Louisville enters this contest as a ranked team that has been excellent at home, with a 9-1 record inside the KFC Yum! Center. The Cards are averaging 88.3 points per outing, a top-tier scoring average in college basketball this season. The Cardinals have an offense that pushes tempo and creates high-efficiency opportunities, a trait that has helped them get off to a good start overall this season, though they are just 2-2 in the ACC early in.
Louisville’s recent performance has been affected by injury, with freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. out for this game and forward Khani Rooths listed as questionable. Leading scorer Ryan Conwell, who was absent in a recent game with a knee issue, is probable for Tuesday’s tip-off.
Virginia has been one of the better teams in the ACC through the first month of the season. The Cavaliers have only a pair of losses and bring a disciplined defensive approach. But this Virginia team is much better offensively than previous versions of the Cavaliers. The Hoos are ranked among the ACC leaders in assists per game, using the pass to create easy looks at the basket. Dallin Hall has been Virginia’s assist catalyst, creating scoring chances for his teammates.
The Cavaliers are also seeking to continue momentum after holding Stanford to 55 points in their latest victory. Virginia’s offensive identity revolves around smart shot selection and strong perimeter shooting, though they must contend with missing wing Jacari White, who is day-to-day with a wrist injury.
Score Projection: Virginia 77 – Louisville 74 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Virginia 50% | Louisville 50% ATS PRO
I project this game as close to a coin flip, as either team could easily come away with a win in Louisville on Tuesday night. I'll take the points with Virginia, as this projects as a one-possession game in either direction, with the Cavaliers certainly having a chance to win outright as an underdog on the road.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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