Updated January 17, 2026
Saturday night’s Lone Star State rivalry game between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Texas Longhorns is an important one for both of these SEC teams. Texas comes into this game with two straight wins over elite competition, while A&M will try to bounce back after dropping a multi-overtime affair on the road. Here, I analyze this matchup from Moody Center and bring you my Texas A&M vs Texas prediction in college basketball.
Pick: | Texas -5.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Texas A&M has quietly turned in one of the SEC’s more interesting seasons with a 13-4 overall record and a 3-1 record in league action. The Aggies have benefited from balanced scoring and aggressive defense, demonstrated by their recent road win over Oklahoma in which five players scored in double figures and they forced 17 turnovers. Their press and pace keeps opponents unsettled, and head coach Bucky McMillan’s roster construction leans heavily on athleticism and tempo.
A&M’s perimeter-oriented scoring is led by Ruben Dominguez, who is averaging 13.8 points per game, with support from Rashaun Agee and others. The Aggies currently average 93 points per game while yielding 78 points defensively. They are an above-average offensive team that can produce quickly in transition.
Texas enters 11-6 overall and 2-2 in conference play with a style that emphasizes size and interior play. Big man Matas Vokietaitis is averaging 15.2 points and 6.3 rebounds per game and gives the Longhorns an inside presence that presents problems for smaller lineups like A&M’s. The Longhorns are coming off two straight important victories over Vanderbilt and Alabama and will try to build on those results here. Offensively, Texas scores 87.3 points per game while allowing 74.4 points per contest.
Score Projection: Texas A&M 80 – Texas 87 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Texas A&M 43%, Texas 57% ATS PRO
I'm going to lay the points with the Texas Longhorns in this matchup with their in-state rivals on Saturday night. Texas has shown that they have an incredibly high ceiling lately, beating two ranked SEC opponents in Vandy and Alabama. I think they will get a third win in a row here and cover the spread in the process.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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