Tuesday’s Southland Conference matchup between the Northwestern State Demons and Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks features one of the biggest point spreads of the day in college basketball. Stephen F. Austin has rolled through opponents this season, going 17-3 overall and 10-1 in conference play. Northwestern State has struggled at 6-13 and 4-6 in Southland action. Can Northwestern State pull a huge upset, or will SFA roll again? I attempt to answer that question with my Northwestern State vs Stephen F. Austin prediction.
Our Northwestern State vs Stephen F. Austin Pick
Pick: Stephen F. Austin −14.5
Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Northwestern State Demons @ Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
- Date & Time: Tuesday, January 27, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
- Venue: William R. Johnson Coliseum, Nacogdoches, Texas
- Broadcast: CBSSN
Key Storylines
- Stephen F. Austin’s offensive firepower: SFA posted an 88-81 win over Lamar in its last game, with guard Keon Thompson exploding for 26 points. Thompson is averaging 17.4 points and 5.2 rebounds per game this season, making him a focal point of this Lumberjacks squad.
- Home dominance: The Lumberjacks are unbeaten in home games (9-0) this season, a trend that plays into their favor when defending their home court in this contest. The Lumberjacks have won five straight games overall and have one of the best records in all of college basketball so far this year.
- Northwestern State’s offensive profile: The Demons score 72.8 points per game and shoot a respectable 45.8% from the field. But their inconsistency has led to a sub-.500 record in Southland play, and they’ve dropped their last two outings to Houston Christian and Incarnate Word.
- Conference positioning: For SFA, every win strengthens its bid for a Southland regular-season title and better seeding in the conference tournament. Northwestern State is sitting in eighth place in the conference standings. The Demons are aiming to climb the standings but can ill afford more losses in league play if they want to achieve that goal.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Stephen F. Austin is 43-36 all-time against Northwestern State.
- SFA won the first meeting between these teams this season by 10 points on the road.
- The Lumberjacks are 15-3 against the spread so far this season.
- The Demons are 10-6-1 against the spread going into this matchup.
- The under is 11-7 in Stephen F. Austin games this year.
- Northwestern State is 12-5 to the over for the season.
Northwestern State vs Stephen F. Austin Model Projection
Score Projection: Northwestern State 66 – Stephen F. Austin 83
Win Probability: Northwestern State 18%, Stephen F. Austin 82%
Final Thoughts
It would take a lot of things going right for Northwestern State and a lot of things going wrong for Stephen F. Austin for the Lumberjacks to lost this contest. Not only do I expect the Lumberjacks to continue their five-game winning streak, but I expect them to win big and for SFA to cover the spread. The Lumberjacks are outscoring their opponents by just over 13 points per game for the season and they should get another convincing victory on Tuesday afternoon in Texas.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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