The Purdue Boilermakers and Memphis Tigers will do battle at the Baha Mar Championship on Thursday night. The Boilermakers are 4–0 and ranked number one in the country going into this game. Memphis has looked inconsistent through its first three games and they will try to turn things around in the Caribbean. Before tip-off from the Bahamas, you can continue reading to get my Memphis vs Purdue prediction.
Our Memphis vs Purdue Pick
- Pick: Memphis +16.5
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Memphis Tigers vs Purdue Boilermakers
- Date & Time: Thursday, November 20, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
- Venue: Baha Mar Convention Center, Nassau, Bahamas
- Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Key Storylines
- Purdue’s early dominance: The Boilermakers are 4–0 to start the season and come in with a potent offense. They put up 97 points against Akron, with Trey Kaufman-Renn notching a dominant 17-point, 15-rebound double-double in that game. Braden Smith added 16 points and 10 assists in the win. The Boilermakers have scored over 80 points in each of their first four games.
- Efficiency through the roof: Purdue’s offense ranks as the most efficient in the country according to KenPom. It will take an incredible performance on the defensive end of the floor for Memphis to dig in and get stops consistently in this game.
- Memphis under pressure: The Tigers are 1–2 through three games. Their recent losses to UNLV and Ole Miss were caused in part by turnovers and poor execution. Their offense has not formed a cohesive unit yet, and coach Penny Hardaway acknowledged the roster is still a work in progress.
- Big men battle: Memphis has size, notably with 7-foot-1 freshman center Simon Majok and veteran forward Julius Thedford. If they can control the boards, they might make this competitive. But Purdue’s frontcourt with Kaufman-Renn and strong rebounding could neutralize the Tigers’ size.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first meeting between these teams since 2005.
- Purdue is 1-3 against the spread so far this season.
- Memphis is 2-1 against the spread despite being 1-2 straight up.
- The over is 2-1 in Memphis’ first three games.
- The Boilermakers are 2-2 in the over/under market going into Thursday night.
Memphis vs Purdue Model Projection
Score Projection: Purdue 87 – Memphis 75
Win Probability: Purdue 75%, Memphis 25%
Final Thoughts
I am fully expecting Purdue to get a win in this game from the Bahamas. But I’m going to take the points with Memphis as a huge underdog here. The Tigers have some size and should be able to at least make Purdue everything they get inside the paint. I don’t expect enough from the Memphis offense to steal this game, but they will make it competitive for the most part, to the point that the underdog will cover the number.
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