Kentucky vs Missouri College Basketball ATS Picks 12/28/22
Updated October 26, 2026
Updated October 26, 2026
Historical betting preview updated with the final score and result of the original ATS.io pick.
Missouri entered its December 28, 2022 matchup against Kentucky with an 11–1 record and one of the most productive offenses in college basketball. The Tigers had just dismantled No. 16 Illinois, while Kentucky was still searching for consistency against stronger competition.
Despite Kentucky's reputation and status as the betting favorite, the original ATS.io selection backed Missouri +3.5 at home.
That proved to be an excellent call. The Tigers dominated the Wildcats 89–75 at Mizzou Arena, winning outright by 14 points and comfortably covering the spread.
Here's how the original college basketball pick was supported, what happened on the court, and why Missouri was able to control the SEC opener.
<text weight="medium">Original ATS.io selection: Missouri +3.5</text>
Game information | Details |
|---|---|
Matchup | Kentucky Wildcats at Missouri Tigers |
Date | Wednesday, December 28, 2022 |
Tipoff | 7:00 PM ET |
Venue | Mizzou Arena, Columbia, Missouri |
Kentucky's pregame record | 8–3 |
Missouri's pregame record | 11–1 |
Original ATS.io pick | Missouri +3.5 |
Final score | Missouri 89, Kentucky 75 |
Missouri's winning margin | 14 points |
Betting result | Missouri +3.5 won |
The original article recommended Missouri +3.5 and included a BetRivers first-bet promotion offering up to $500 in bonus bets using promo code SPORTS.
That promotion is historical and should not be treated as a currently available offer. For information about the operator, see our BetRivers Sportsbook review.
The original ATS.io prediction was based on three betting trends:
Those trends made Missouri an appealing underdog, particularly with the game being played at Mizzou Arena.
The Tigers had already demonstrated their ability to compete with nationally ranked opponents. Kentucky, meanwhile, had struggled to meet market expectations despite winning eight of its first 11 games.
The contrast was important.
Kentucky entered as the more established program, but Missouri had the better recent performance against the spread and was playing with considerable confidence.
Taking the Tigers +3.5 provided protection in a close game, with an outright victory also cashing the bet.
Kentucky entered the matchup with an 8–3 record under head coach John Calipari.
The Wildcats had won their previous game against Florida A&M, 88–68, but the performance was less convincing than the final score suggested.
Kentucky was favored by 38.5 points and failed to cover by a wide margin.
The Wildcats led by 10 at halftime and maintained control throughout the second half, but never threatened to win by enough to reward spread bettors.
Freshman guard Cason Wallace produced one of his best performances of the season.
He finished with 27 points, nine assists, four steals, and two rebounds.
Oscar Tshiebwe contributed 14 points and eight rebounds.
The win improved Kentucky's record, but the Wildcats' failure to cover continued a difficult stretch for bettors backing the team.
Kentucky had gone 0–5 ATS in its previous five contests entering the Missouri matchup.
Through 11 games, the Wildcats averaged:
Statistic | Kentucky average |
|---|---|
Points per game | 78.7 |
Field goal percentage | 46.0% |
Assists per game | 18.1 |
Rebounds per game | 41.0 |
Points allowed per game | 64.4 |
Blocks per game | 5.1 |
Steals per game | 8.0 |
Kentucky's rebounding was a significant strength.
Tshiebwe remained one of the nation's most productive interior players, giving the Wildcats a considerable advantage against many opponents.
However, Kentucky's offense was less dependable against teams capable of applying pressure and forcing turnovers.
That became a major concern against Missouri.
Missouri had been one of the early surprises of the 2022–23 college basketball season.
Under first-year head coach Dennis Gates, the Tigers played at a fast pace, moved the ball effectively, and generated plenty of scoring opportunities.
Their biggest statement came immediately before the Kentucky game.
Missouri defeated No. 16 Illinois 93–71 in the annual Braggin' Rights rivalry matchup.
Illinois entered as a six-point favorite, but Missouri dominated.
The game was tied roughly seven minutes into the first half before the Tigers took control.
Missouri built a 24-point halftime lead and never allowed Illinois to mount a serious comeback.
Brown delivered a remarkable performance against the Fighting Illini.
He finished with 31 points, eight assists, five rebounds, and four steals.
D'Moi Hodge added 20 points, four assists, and three rebounds.
The Tigers' offense repeatedly created open looks and punished Illinois' defensive mistakes.
That performance helped establish Missouri as a legitimate threat heading into conference play.
Through 12 games, Missouri averaged:
Statistic | Missouri average |
|---|---|
Points per game | 88.8 |
Field goal percentage | 51.3% |
Assists per game | 20.0 |
Rebounds per game | 33.3 |
Points allowed per game | 74.7 |
Blocks per game | 3.3 |
Steals per game | 12.8 |
The Tigers scored more than 10 additional points per game compared with Kentucky.
Their field goal percentage was also significantly higher.
Missouri's aggressive defense generated nearly 13 steals per game, creating opportunities to score before opposing defenses could get organized.
The main weakness was rebounding.
Kentucky averaged 41 rebounds per game, compared with Missouri's 33.3.
That made Tshiebwe a major concern for the Tigers.
However, Missouri's shooting, passing, and turnover creation provided several ways to offset the disadvantage on the boards.
The original selection was supported by Missouri's recent ATS performance. A closer examination of the teams' strengths also revealed several reasons the Tigers could compete.
Missouri entered averaging 12.8 steals per game.
The Tigers relied on active defenders, aggressive passing-lane pressure, and quick transitions.
Kentucky had capable ball handlers in Wallace and Sahvir Wheeler, but protecting possession against Missouri was going to be essential.
Every turnover created another opportunity for the Tigers to score without having to attack Kentucky's set defense.
Brown was coming off a 31-point performance against Illinois.
He could score inside, stretch the floor, and create opportunities for teammates.
Kentucky had the size to challenge him around the basket, particularly with Tshiebwe.
But Brown's versatility presented a difficult defensive assignment.
His ability to shoot from the perimeter became especially important in the actual game.
Kentucky held a clear rebounding advantage entering the matchup.
Tshiebwe was capable of generating additional possessions through offensive rebounds.
Missouri needed to counter that advantage with efficient shooting and fewer turnovers.
The Tigers had been one of the country's best shooting teams through their first 12 games.
If Missouri continued converting its opportunities at a high rate, Kentucky's rebounding advantage might not be enough.
Missouri delivered another outstanding performance against a nationally ranked opponent.
The Tigers defeated No. 19 Kentucky 89–75, improving to 12–1 overall and opening SEC play with a victory.
Kentucky fell to 8–4.
The game was played before a sold-out crowd of 15,061 at Mizzou Arena.
Missouri took control early and led 42–30 at halftime.
Kentucky made several attempts to close the gap, but the Tigers consistently responded.
The Wildcats cut the deficit to nine points midway through the second half.
Missouri immediately answered with an 8–0 run to restore a commanding advantage.
The Tigers eventually led by as many as 21 points before finishing with a 14-point victory.
Half | Kentucky | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
First | 30 | 42 |
Second | 45 | 47 |
Final | 75 | 89 |
Missouri won both halves.
The Tigers' 12-point halftime lead was particularly important for the betting result.
Kentucky never reduced the deficit enough to seriously threaten Missouri's outright victory during the closing minutes.
Brown followed his 31-point game against Illinois with another exceptional showing.
He scored 30 points against Kentucky on 10-of-18 shooting.
He also made four of his eight three-point attempts.
Brown became the central figure in Missouri's second consecutive victory over a nationally ranked opponent.
His scoring helped the Tigers maintain their advantage whenever Kentucky attempted to build momentum.
Player | Points |
|---|---|
Kobe Brown | 30 |
D'Moi Hodge | 15 |
DeAndre Gholston | 12 |
Sean East II | 12 |
Brown's performance was the highlight, but Missouri received contributions throughout its rotation.
Hodge's perimeter shooting helped stretch Kentucky's defense.
Gholston and East provided additional scoring and playmaking.
That depth made Missouri difficult to contain.
Kentucky had several productive individual performances despite the loss.
Tshiebwe recorded 23 points and 19 rebounds.
It was his sixth double-double of the season.
Wallace added 19 points, while Wheeler finished with 12 points and eight assists.
Player | Points |
|---|---|
Oscar Tshiebwe | 23 |
Cason Wallace | 19 |
Sahvir Wheeler | 12 |
Tshiebwe's 19 rebounds helped Kentucky win the rebounding battle.
But the Wildcats couldn't match Missouri's shooting efficiency or take care of the basketball consistently enough to close the gap.
Kentucky's three leading scorers combined for 54 points.
The rest of the team contributed just 21.
Missouri had a more balanced offensive performance around Brown.
The final box score shows how Missouri overcame Kentucky's advantage on the boards.
Team statistic | Kentucky | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
Points | 75 | 89 |
Field goal percentage | 46.4% | 49.1% |
Three-point percentage | 34.8% | 40.0% |
Three-pointers made | 8 | 10 |
Free throw percentage | 62.5% | 82.1% |
Total rebounds | 37 | 28 |
Assists | 15 | 18 |
Steals | 5 | 9 |
Turnovers | 14 | 8 |
Missouri's superior ball security was a major difference.
The Tigers committed only eight turnovers, while Kentucky gave the ball away 14 times.
Missouri also shot 82.1% from the free throw line, compared with Kentucky's 62.5%.
Those differences helped offset Kentucky's nine-rebound advantage.
The Tigers' shooting was another decisive factor.
Missouri connected on 10 three-pointers and finished at 49.1% from the field.
Kentucky shot reasonably well overall, but its first-half struggles left the Wildcats chasing the game.
Yes. Missouri +3.5 was a comfortable winner.
The original ATS.io article recommended taking Missouri as a 3.5-point underdog.
Instead of merely staying within the spread, the Tigers won outright by 14.
Betting outcome | Result |
|---|---|
Original selection | Missouri +3.5 |
Final score | Missouri 89, Kentucky 75 |
Missouri's margin | +14 |
ATS margin against +3.5 | 17.5 points |
Pick result | Win |
Missouri +3.5 covered by 17.5 points.
The Tigers also won outright, meaning a Missouri moneyline wager would have cashed.
The original article did not document a separate moneyline recommendation, so the verified ATS.io result is one winning spread pick.
Missouri entered with better recent ATS form.
The Tigers were also playing with confidence after their dominant victory against Illinois.
Brown was in excellent scoring form, and Missouri's offense had been significantly more productive than Kentucky's.
The game reinforced those pregame advantages.
Missouri's pressure defense forced turnovers, while its shooting efficiency prevented Kentucky from building sustained momentum.
The Tigers' home-court advantage also contributed to a difficult environment for the Wildcats.
The original selection did not need the full 3.5-point cushion.
Missouri won comfortably without it.
This matchup offers several useful lessons when reviewing college basketball betting decisions.
Recent performance against the spread deserves context. Kentucky entered on an 0–5 ATS run, while Missouri had covered five of seven. Those records alone couldn't predict the outcome, but they highlighted a difference between the teams' performances and market expectations.
An underdog can have meaningful matchup advantages. Missouri had the more efficient offense and a defense capable of forcing turnovers. Those strengths mattered more than Kentucky's higher ranking.
Rebounding doesn't determine every game. Kentucky won the boards 37–28 but still lost by 14. Missouri compensated with better shooting, fewer turnovers, and stronger free throw production.
Home-court advantage can be significant in conference play. Missouri entered with a strong home ATS history against Kentucky and delivered another convincing performance in Columbia.
The number matters. Missouri +3.5 provided insurance against a close loss, but the Tigers won outright. Identifying a team capable of winning the game is often a strong starting point when evaluating an underdog.
For upcoming games, our college basketball betting picks assess spreads, totals, moneylines, and relevant matchup statistics.
Missouri improved to 12–1 and opened SEC play 1–0.
The victory was particularly impressive because it followed the Tigers' 93–71 win over Illinois.
Missouri had now defeated two nationally ranked opponents by double digits in consecutive games.
For Kentucky, the loss reinforced concerns about its performances against stronger competition.
The Wildcats dropped to 8–4 and began SEC play 0–1.
Both programs eventually reached the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
Missouri finished the regular season with a 23–8 record and reached the tournament's second round.
Kentucky recovered from its uneven start to finish the regular season 21–10, also advancing to the NCAA Tournament's second round.
The December meeting remained one of Missouri's most impressive victories of the season.
Missouri defeated Kentucky 89–75 at Mizzou Arena.
Vincent Senick recommended Missouri +3.5.
Yes. Missouri won by 14 points, covering +3.5 by 17.5 points.
Yes. The original ATS.io article listed Missouri as a 3.5-point underdog, making Kentucky the favorite at that number.
Brown scored 30 points, making 10 of 18 field goal attempts and four three-pointers.
Tshiebwe recorded 23 points and 19 rebounds.
Missouri led Kentucky 42–30 at halftime.
The matchup took place at Mizzou Arena in Columbia, Missouri.
Missouri improved to 12–1, while Kentucky dropped to 8–4.
The archived article advertised a historical first-bet offer of up to $500 using promo code SPORTS. That promotion should not be treated as currently available.
Yes. Missouri won by 14 points, so both the original +3.5 selection and a hypothetical Missouri moneyline wager would have been winners.
The original Kentucky vs Missouri prediction backed the Tigers +3.5, and the result was decisive.
Missouri controlled the game, led by 12 at halftime, and finished with an 89–75 victory.
Brown delivered another 30-point performance, while the Tigers' shooting and turnover advantage proved too much for Kentucky.
The Wildcats had the better rebounding numbers, but they couldn't turn that advantage into enough scoring opportunities.
→ Our Take: Missouri's strong recent form deserved more respect than the betting line suggested. The Tigers entered with an 11–1 record, had just beaten Illinois convincingly, and possessed an offense capable of troubling Kentucky. The original Missouri +3.5 selection was well supported and won by a comfortable 17.5-point ATS margin.
Updated October 26, 2026
