The Round of 32 in the 2026 NCAA Tournament includes a clash between Kentucky and Iowa State on Sunday. One side is a battle-tested Kentucky group that survived an overtime scare in the opening round, while Iowa State enters off one of the most dominant first-round wins of the tournament. With a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line, this Kentucky vs Iowa State game is expected to be close on Sunday in St. Louis.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kentucky Wildcats vs Iowa State Cyclones
- Date & Time: Sunday, March 22, 2:45 PM ET
- Venue: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Missouri
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
Kentucky advanced after an 89-84 overtime win in the first round, leaning heavily on a standout performance from Otega Oweh. That game highlighted both the Wildcats’ scoring ceiling and their defensive concerns, as they allowed a double-digit seed to push them to the brink.
Iowa State, on the other hand, cruised to a 108-74 win in its opener, showcasing offensive balance and depth. However, the biggest storyline heading into this contest is the status of forward Joshua Jefferson, who is dealing with an ankle injury and is considered unlikely to play. His absence would remove a key piece from Iowa State’s lineup on both ends of the floor.
Key Players
Iowa State Cyclones
- Milan Momcilovic: Leads the team with 17.1 points per game and is a primary scoring option. His ability to stretch the floor and create offense becomes even more critical if Jefferson is sidelined.
- Killyan Toure: Coming off a 25-point, 11-rebound, 6-assist performance in the first round. He provides versatility and interior presence that can overwhelm opponents.
- Tamin Lipsey: The floor general who averages over 4 assists per game and controls tempo. His decision-making is key in high-pressure situations.
Kentucky Wildcats
- Otega Oweh: Exploded for 35 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists in the first round. He is the engine of Kentucky’s offense and a matchup problem for any defense.
- Malachi Moreno: Kentucky’s rebounding leader with over 6 boards per game, Moreno has to help Kentucky end possessions with defensive rebounds if they are going to hang with the Cyclones.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Kentucky | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 81.0 | 82.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 74.1 | 65.4 |
| Team Field Goal % | 47% | 49% |
| Rebounds per game | 37.6 | 35.8 |
| Assists per game | 16.1 | 17.4 |
Betting Trends
- Kentucky is 18-17 against the spread this season.
- Iowa State is 21-13-1 against the spread entering Sunday afternoon.
- The over is 18-17 in Kentucky games this year.
- Iowa State has had the under go 19-16 in their games.
Kentucky vs Iowa State Pick & Model Projection
- Score Projection: Kentucky 74 – Iowa State 78 ATS PRO
- Pick: Iowa State -4.5 ATS PRO
- Confidence: 3 out of 5 ATS PRO
- Win Probability: Kentucky 42%, Iowa State 58% ATS PRO
Iowa State enters this matchup as the more complete team, particularly on the defensive end, where it allows just over 65 points per game. The Cyclones also hold an edge in ball movement and efficiency, factors that typically translate well in tournament settings.
That said, the potential absence of Joshua Jefferson cannot be ignored. His production across scoring, rebounding, and playmaking leaves a noticeable gap. Kentucky’s path to an upset lies in another high-level performance from Oweh and improved execution in late-game situations.
In the end, Iowa State’s depth and defensive tenacity should be enough to advance, though the margin may be tighter than expected. Laying the points with the Cyclones is my preferred angle, but but with only a moderate level of confidence.
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