Colorado visits Texas Tech on Wednesday night with the Red Raiders heavily favored in Lubbock behind an All-American caliber centerpiece in JT Toppin. Colorado enters with dangerous guard play and enough shooting to threaten anyone, but they have struggled throughout the 2025-26 season. Here, I take a closer look at this Big 12 matchup and make my Colorado vs Texas Tech prediction on the basketball court.
Our Colorado vs Texas Tech Pick
Pick: Texas Tech -13.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Colorado Buffaloes @ Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Date & Time: Wednesday, February 11, 2026, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, Texas
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
- Texas Tech at home has been a problem for visitors, sitting at 11-1 in Lubbock and fresh off a run that includes wins over BYU and Houston before tight setbacks at UCF and vs Kansas.
- Star power favors the Red Raiders. JT Toppin is averaging 21.8 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks. Christian Anderson directs traffic at 7.5 assists and supplies perimeter shooting.
- Colorado leans on Isaiah Johnson at 16.3 points, with Barrington Hargress at 4.4 assists and Bangot Dak at 6.9 rebounds. The Buffaloes have shown high-end ceiling, blasting TCU 87-61 and beating Arizona State 78-70, but their road form has not been great.
- This is the second meeting between these teams this season after Texas Tech’s 73-71 win in Boulder on January 10, a game that featured a furious Colorado rally after halftime.
- Colorado center Fawaz Ifaola and guard Andrew Crawford are listed as probable, while Texas Tech guard Christian Anderson has recently been cleared from illness. Bettors should monitor lineup news the day of this game, but both teams are largely healthy.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- On January 10 in Boulder, Texas Tech defeated Colorado 73-71.
- Texas Tech is 11-12 against the spread so far this season.
- Colorado comes into this game with an 11-13 record against the spread.
- The under is 12-11 in Texas Tech's games this season.
- Colorado has stayed under the total in 13 of their first 24 games.
Colorado vs Texas Tech Model Projection
Score Projection: Colorado 72 – Texas Tech 86
Win Probability: Colorado 34%, Texas Tech 66%
Final Thoughts
Texas Tech owns clear advantages on the glass and in paint efficiency through JT Toppin, while Christian Anderson’s playmaking should generate high value looks for multiple shooters. Colorado has the backcourt pop to hang around and can pressure Tech if threes fall, but the Buffaloes’ away form and defensive slippage against elite offenses are red flags in Lubbock. I'm going to lay the points with Texas Tech as the favorite in this contest, as the Red Raiders will get their second straight victory.
Affiliate DisclosureATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
